Central tune! Will house prices fall in the second half of the year? What changes have been made in regulation?


Central tune! Will house prices fall in the second half of the year? What changes have been made in regulation?

  Beijing, August 1 ST (Peng Yuru) In recent months, the property market has continued to pick up. In June, the price of new houses in 70 cities rose to a new high since July 2019. Will the direction of property market regulation change in the second half of the year?

  The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on July 30 gave the latest tone in 31 words: "We must adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."

  Data Map: Real estate development. China News Service reporter Zhang Bin photo

  Why should we continue to insist on "housing without speculation"?

  At the end of 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference first proposed that "houses are used for living, not for speculation". Since then, "housing without speculation" has become a high-frequency word in the property market regulation policy.

  Affected by the epidemic and other factors, China’s economy (GDP) decreased by 6.8% in the first quarter and increased by 3.2% in the second quarter. Although the economic growth has achieved a V-shaped rebound, the current economic situation is still complicated and severe, and the instability and uncertainty are great. Why can’t the real estate regulation be relaxed?

  Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of China Policy Science Research Association, told Zhongxin. com that Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party once again stressed the practical significance of "housing without speculation" and warned against rushing headlong into it. Recently, the housing prices in some cities have rebounded, while the housing prices have risen sharply, which is not conducive to the development of the real economy and will also affect the consumption power of residents. Therefore, we must persist in not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, stabilize the property market and prevent ups and downs.

  "In the first half of the year, more than a dozen cities across the country relaxed their control policies ‘ One-day tour ’ Behind it is the impulse of local deregulation and stimulation of the real estate market. " Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told Zhongxin. com that the effect behind it is obvious. The real estate market has indeed stabilized rapidly, and even some cities have become hot.

  “‘ Don’t speculate if you live in a house ’ Positioning remains unchanged, sending a clear signal — — All localities must not have the luck of easily relaxing control policies. " Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told Zhongxin.com that in the future, where new situations such as rising land prices and housing prices appear, they will still actively control them.

  "With the adjustment of policies, many cities have begun to tighten the regulation of the property market. On the whole, the real estate market policy will continue to be stable in the second half of the year." Zhang Dawei said.

  Data Map: A real estate agency store in Beijing. Peng Ruru

  How to ensure the stable development of the property market?

  The symposium on real estate work held on July 24 proposed to implement a prudent management system for real estate finance, stabilize the stock, strictly control the increment, and prevent funds from illegally flowing into the real estate market; We should pay close attention to the establishment of a monitoring index system for the residential land market, regularly disclose the progress of land reserves and land construction in various places, and accept social supervision; It is necessary to play the role of fiscal and taxation policies, effectively regulate housing demand, and so on.

  Finance, land, finance and taxation are not traditional administrative control measures.

  In Yan Yuejin’s view, the focus of the forum is to adhere to the problem orientation, attach great importance to the new situation and new problems in the current real estate market, always tighten the string of real estate regulation and control, and unswervingly promote the implementation of a long-term mechanism.

  How to quickly discover new situations and problems, the forum proposed that the main responsibility of the city government should be fully implemented, problems should be quickly responded and disposed of, and targeted policies and measures should be taken in time. It is necessary to strengthen market monitoring, prompt, guide and warn market changes in time, and accurately analyze the market situation.

  It is worth noting that government officials from 10 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, Ningbo and Changsha attended the forum. Yan Yuejin said that most of these 10 cities belong to cities where house prices rose rapidly in the first half of this year, and their participation in the meeting itself is a signal.

  Since July, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan and other hot cities have successively introduced policies to tighten real estate regulation. The executive meeting of the Shanghai Municipal Government held on July 30th pointed out that it is necessary to firmly adhere to the orientation of "housing without speculation", resolutely implement the normal long-term mechanism of "one city, one policy", stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and ensure the stable and healthy development of the market.

  Zhang Bo, dean of the branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, predicted that real estate regulation and control will be more tight and timely in stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations in the second half of the year, and the cooling of the property market in the third quarter may show some signs.

  Data Map: A real estate project attracts many buyers to come to "Taofang". China News Agency issued Tang Yanjun photo

  It is not to suppress real estate, but to timely, scientifically and accurately regulate it.

  According to the report released by 58 cities and Anjuke, in July, the prices of new and second-hand houses in 67 key cities nationwide increased. Among them, the average online price of new houses increased by 0.04% from the previous month; The average listing price of second-hand houses increased by 0.54% month-on-month, and the average listing price of second-hand houses in 50 cities increased month-on-month.

  Yan Yuejin pointed out that the follow-up policies of overheated cities in the property market are expected to be tightened, especially where no regulatory policies have been introduced recently. Other cities will be more cautious in policy relaxation and will not relax easily.

  However, policy tightening is not blindly suppressing real estate. Adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculating" in order to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The symposium demanded that differentiated control measures should be taken from the actual situation in various places, and timely, scientific and precise control should be adopted.

  On July 29th, Shenzhen "patched up" the new property market policy announced on July 15th, explaining in detail the policy application of on-the-road real estate transaction, the determination of settlement time, the policy of restricting the purchase of commercial housing, the purchase of houses by divorced people, the adjustment of ordinary housing standards, and the implementation of online signing of housing mortgage contracts.

  "In cities where the property market is relatively stable and there are no ups and downs, policy fluctuations are unlikely. Market participants do not have to worry too much about policy tightening, and they must understand the strength of policies in various cities and the driving force for further market stability." Yan Yuejin said that the regulation lies in blocking real estate speculation and meeting reasonable housing needs.

  On July 20th, the State Council issued a document to comprehensively promote the renovation of old urban communities. By the end of 2025, we will strive to basically complete the renovation task of old urban communities that need to be renovated before the end of 2000. It involves nearly 39 million households and 220,000 old urban communities. The symposium on real estate work also called for doing a good job in housing security, promoting the transformation of old urban communities and shanty towns according to local conditions, and making efforts to solve the housing problems of urban new citizens and young people.

  Zhang Dawei said that the renovation of old residential areas is a win-win project that can not only protect people’s livelihood, but also stabilize investment and employment and stimulate consumption. Another expert pointed out that the renovation of old residential areas is not easy to cause speculation. From the perspective of ensuring housing demand, real estate has not been completely suppressed, and this situation of maintaining pressure will continue in the future. (End)


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