[Global Times-Global Network Reporter Bai Yiyi Chen Qingqing] According to Russian news agencies and other Russian media reports on the 8th, a tanker fire accident occurred on the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch Strait in the early hours of local time, and some sections of the bridge were destroyed. According to the Russian Counter-Terrorism Committee, the accident was caused by the explosion of a truck, which caused the tanker to catch fire. The investigation commission of the Russian Federation said that it had filed a case for the explosion accident.
A tanker fire accident occurred on the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch Strait. Source: foreign mediaAnalysts told the Global Times reporter on the 8th that the destruction of the Crimea Bridge will become a landmark event in the Russian-Ukrainian war, which may cause Russia to launch high-intensity retaliation against Ukraine. The incident means the spiral escalation of the conflict, and both sides of the war have been hostile to each other. It is worth mentioning that the Crimean Bridge incident is another destruction of key infrastructure after the leakage of the "Beixi" pipeline. Once this means becomes the norm, it will mean the security risks and global tensions faced by all countries will rise linearly.
According to the video image released by RIA Novosti on the 8th, after the incident, the fire over the Crimea Bridge rose several meters high, many cars were filled with smoke, and the bridge deck collapsed and fell into the sea. According to the assessment of the All-Russian Insurance Union, the loss caused by the Crimean Bridge incident is 200 million to 500 million rubles. Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President, said that it is impossible to predict the time for repairing the Crimean Bridge.
According to officials of the Crimean authorities, the Ukrainian side should be responsible for this. Up to now, Ukrainian officials have not publicly admitted that the Ukrainian army launched the attack. However, the Ukrainian Air Force posted on social media that "in the morning on the Crimean Bridge, the fuel tank caught fire. Part of the road was destroyed! Everything will belong to Ukraine! " The director of the Ukrainian President’s Office also issued a tweet saying, "The Crimean Bridge incident is only the beginning, all illegal things will be destroyed, all stolen things will be returned to Ukraine, and the Russian occupation will be completely expelled."
Cui Heng, an assistant researcher at the Russian Research Center of East China Normal University, told the Global Times reporter that the destruction of the Crimea Bridge may lead to "high-intensity retaliation" by Russia. He explained that because of the importance of the Crimea Bridge, Russia had issued warnings and delineated a "red line" many times before. If the Crimean Bridge explosion is finally proved to be a deliberate attack, it will be a test of whether Russia can keep the "red line". "In some people’s view, Russia has no choice but to use high-intensity retaliation to convince the outside world of Russia’s determination to draw the" red line "and stick to it."
Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the China Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that Russia may take strong retaliatory measures. He analyzed the Global Times reporter and thought that this means that the risk of attack on the civilian infrastructure in the rear of Russia and Ukraine will greatly increase in the future, and the war wounds of both sides will be more difficult to heal. In contrast, Ukraine’s ability to protect and repair civil infrastructure is weak, and people’s lives will be even more difficult in the event of an attack.
According to public information, the Crimea Bridge is a railway and highway bridge, which is the traffic lifeline connecting Russia and Crimea. It is 19 kilometers long and 7.5 kilometers across the sea. It was opened in May 2018, and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the opening ceremony of the bridge. In Russia’s special military operations, the Crimean Bridge has been playing a key role in logistics support and troop transport. The bridge is also considered as a symbol of Russia’s control of Crimea.
Recently, with the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Crimean Bridge has become one of the focuses of confrontation between the two sides. In August this year, there was an explosion near the Crimea Bridge, and Kerch started the air defense system. In August this year, Podolyak, chief adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, said in an interview that the Crimean Bridge was a "legitimate target" for the Ukrainian armed forces. Earlier, danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Committee, also said that if Russian supplies and equipment are reinforced through the route of the Crimea Bridge, Ukraine will definitely attack the Crimea Bridge once the opportunity arises. In response, peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, said at that time that the Ukrainian side’s relevant remarks were unacceptable.
How will the destruction of the Crimean Bridge affect the trend and strength comparison of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield? Cui Heng told the Global Times reporter that the Crimea Bridge provided supplies and troops for Russian troops in the direction of Hellson and Nikolayevsk, and the destruction of the bridge directly affected Russia’s current defense in Hellson and its attack in Nikolayevsk, which was the main purpose of attacking the Crimea Bridge. "More importantly, in Russia’s view, the Crimean Bridge is symbolic, representing Putin’s prestige, the centripetal force of the Crimean people towards Russia and the pride of Russians. The attack on the bridge is intended to hit the morale of the Russian people. "
However, Wang Xiaoquan believes that the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is located in Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, but the main logistics support and force transportation of the Russian Army on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine are not from the Crimean Peninsula, and the Crimean Bridge is only one of the transportation channels connecting the Crimean Peninsula with the mainland, and it can also be transported by ferry. The damage to the Crimean Bridge has a very limited impact on the battlefield situation and power contrast.
According to media reports from Tass and RIA Novosti, the traffic on the Crimea Bridge will be blocked until October 31st. After the bridge fire accident, the Crimean authorities released a message on the 8 th local time that the local basic necessities inventory can meet the consumption for two months, but in order to avoid snapping up, the sales of food groceries will be restricted. According to the Russian Ministry of Energy on the 8 th, the supply of automobile fuel in Crimea is sufficient, and the supply is enough to last for 15 days. At present, relevant departments are working to ensure the continuous supply of local fuel.
It is worth noting that the explosion of the Crimea Bridge is another destruction of key infrastructure after the recent "Beixi" pipeline leak. Analysts pointed out to the Global Times reporter that the above two incidents were "off-the-counter moves" outside the conventional military operations. "These" off-the-counter moves "were used, which is a very bad signal that the parties involved in the conflict broke the rules."
"In the short term, this means a spiral escalation of the conflict, and both Russia and Ukraine have already waged endless hostility. From a broader perspective, once the destruction of key infrastructure becomes the norm in the future, the national security risks faced by all countries will rise, and the tension of the global situation will rise linearly. " Cui Wei analyzed this way.
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