"Is there a national subsidy to withdraw, is there a price cut by Tesla, and some car companies and some brands have no future?"
In an interview with Netease Technology’s "Energy Field", Li Jinyong, executive director of the Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and chairman of the New Energy Automobile Committee, spoke bluntly about the upcoming impact of the current "state subsidy and retreat" on some automobile companies.
The policy of "state subsidy" for new energy vehicles, which lasted for 14 years, officially withdrew from the historical stage.The purchase subsidy for new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2022.. Car companies that are used to feeding by subsidies have been weaned collectively.
At the same time, squeezed by multiple factors such as scale effect, cost pressure, price war, and double integral policy variables, all domestic new energy vehicle companies will encounter unprecedented battles in a full, free and cruel competitive market. In this regard, no one can be lucky: "This is a moment to test strategic strength and judgment."
In January 2023, new energy vehicles handed over a set of embarrassing "answers": except for Tesla, BYD and Ideal, which rose by 286.5%, 62% and 23% respectively,Almost the entire new energy vehicle market has experienced a decline in sales to varying degrees.. The zero-run, which once had an eye-catching performance, hit a year-on-year and month-on-month plunge of 85% in January; Weilai delivered 8,506 vehicles in January, down 11.9% year-on-year; Last year, Nezha, the sales champion of New Power, delivered only 6,016 vehicles in January, down 45.4% year-on-year.
Someone teased: "I have eaten milk for more than ten years, and I haven’t grown up yet!"
After the real weaning, can car companies still ride the waves in the market?
"In 2022, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles nationwide has reached 6.88 million.The permeability reaches 26%Does this strong young man need to continue to enjoy breast milk? "
Zhang Hong, Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association New Energy Automobile Branch, said in an interview with Netease Technology’s Energy Field: "State compensation has contributed greatly to the development of China’s new energy automobile industry into the world’s largest production and sales country and market. But just as babies have to go through weaning when they grow into teenagers,Subsidized slope retreat is also a page that must be experienced in the development of new energy vehicles.. "
In the past thirteen years, China’s new energy vehicles have grown rapidly. A well-known achievement is that in 2016, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 517,000, and seven years later, this group of figures became 6.8 million, and its market share increased to 25.6%.Complete the goal of reaching 20% in 2025 proposed by the National Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Automobile Industry three years ahead of schedule..
However, if we want to overtake in a corner instead of overturning in a corner and use a pair of "tangible hands" to promote emerging industries, subsidies are essential and the most common: for both producers and consumers, price means can expand the market scale and also enable enterprises to reduce production costs by means of scale effect.
"Subsidies will end sooner or later, but various forms of policies are believed to continue to be introduced." Wang Kai, founder and CTO of Youdian Technology, and Netease Technology’s "Energy Field" said that the subsidies at the production end must end when they begin: "There is no subsidy that does not retreat, and the purpose of subsidies is to finally cancel subsidies."
And whether to cancel subsidies, another consideration indicator,Is the current new energy market mature enough?.
"The core standard depends on the sales of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities. These cities now have quite a few consumers who are willing to buy new energy vehicles. " Li Jinyong said that non-restricted second-and third-tier cities are closer to a completely competitive market, and people have formed buying habits.
According to the traffic insurance data of the Ministry of Public Security, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in cities without purchase restrictions was only 3% in 2019, and it will reach 11.2% in 2021. In the first half of 2022, this figure exceeded 20%, doubling the growth.
In an interview with Netease Technology, Mu Ying, co-founder of Qingyu Capital, an equity investment institution specializing in the research of new energy sub-sectors, took Tesla as an example and talked about another point: "The existence of Tesla in recent years proves that the new energy vehicle manufacturing market can indeed be profitable." Yan Ying said that Tesla has strong management and integration capabilities in the supply chain, which makes it have lower costs and allows investors to see the possibility of profitability in the new energy market.
An intuitive example is that from 2019 to 2022, Tesla’s supply ratio in China once rose from about 50% to 95%. From the battery chassis to the steering wheel and seat belts, Tesla China has almost all local suppliers, which makes many people shout: "Except for the logo, everything else is made in China."
On the other hand, in the field of electrification, from upstream raw materials to downstream manufacturing links, there is already a relatively complete independent industrial chain of three power systems. For example, some car companies, such as BYD, already have complete three-power system technology and production capacity, which can basically be controlled independently; In the field of intelligence, intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving configuration, the penetration rate of intelligent configuration of domestic models is also increasing.
"In the more than ten years of the existence of the State Compensation, China’s new energy vehicles have already had a fairly complete industrial chain, which is a huge advantage." Yan Ying said. The measure of a mature market depends on whether the market can gradually migrate downward and return to the place with the largest population: "The main structure of the current automobile market is actually an olive shape. But on the whole, the market will move down. It is inevitable that Tesla will gradually cut prices now. "
"This may not be a good time."
Although the market is mature enough, Li Jinyong believes that the time of subsidy withdrawal is open to question: the pressure faced by domestic brands at this time is multiple. "Due to the surge in battery costs and the irregular change of the’ double points’ policy in 2021, the price of new energy vehicles is too low, and car companies are not subsidized enough. At this time, the cost pressure will be great."
"The so-called double integral policy is simple to understand.It is a means to adjust the funds for fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.. Li Jinyong pointed out that the original intention of the dual-point policy is to continue the state subsidies for new energy vehicles, and to increase the cost of fuel vehicles and reduce the cost of new energy through point trading to promote the development of new energy. However, the results of the implementation of the double integral policy have not reached the original goal.
Generally speaking, fuel car companies have more negative points and new energy car companies have more positive points. The former should buy positive points from the latter to offset the negative points. However, according to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2021, the positive integral of fuel consumption of passenger cars in China increased to 15.94 million compared with 4.37 million in 2020, and the negative integral decreased from 11.71 million in 2020 to 5.63 million. There are many positive points and few negative points in the industry, and the market supply exceeds demand, which leads to a sharp drop in the price of positive points, a rapid decrease in the funds available to new energy vehicle enterprises and a sharp increase in pressure.
Talking about the reasons, Li Jinyong introduced that according to the plan, the national fuel consumption target is 4L/100km in 2025 and 4.92L/100km in 2021, which is decreasing year by year. However, in 2021, the country’s calculation method of fuel consumption changed, which triggered a chain reaction: some car companies with increased fuel consumption in actual operation reduced fuel consumption according to the new standard, so the negative points of the whole industry also decreased greatly: "This may be unreasonable."
If we say that the cost pressure has already made many car companies unbearable, today’s national subsidy is no less than another one.
Taking the cost of batteries as an example, this has almost become the overall pain of the industry-although, since December 2022,Lithium carbonate has kept falling for three months, reaching 400,000 yuan/ton.Compared with the high point of 600,000 yuan/ton before the subsidy for new energy vehicles retreated last year, it has dropped sharply-but even so, the price today is still tenfold higher than that of 40,000 yuan/ton in 2020.
The reason why it is "almost" is that even the sorrows and joys in the industry are not connected: when China domestic brands lambaste "where is the money going" in the cry of "selling one car and losing one", battery raw material manufacturers have already earned a lot of money in this round of periodic rise of lithium mines-for example, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, a leading enterprise in the industry, has achieved a net profit of 14.795 billion in the first three quarters of 2022. In the first three quarters of 2022, Tianqi Lithium’s profit reached 15.981 billion, which was nearly 30 times higher than the same period last year.
There are many similar appeals. For example, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Economic Commission, recently said that the withdrawal of policy subsidies would have a certain impact on the domestic new energy automobile market in the first quarter of this year or even in the first half of this year, and suggested that the new energy automobile purchase reduction and exemption policy planned to be withdrawn at the end of this year should be continued.
The continuation may lie in a hidden worry: in many ways, the core of subsidies is not the "big money-throwing" that has been going on for more than ten years, but the use of funds to subvert the early costs of small-scale emerging industries, weak markets and unstable technologies, and exchange time for space.
According to the most direct understanding, the disappearance of subsidies will bring about an increase in costs, which will bring about price increases. In fact, from mid-2022 to now, many new energy brands have quietly set off a "price increase tide": for example, BYD, Weimar, Nezha, Chang ‘an Deep Blue, Volkswagen, etc. have successively announced that they will increase the terminal prices of some of their models, ranging from 1,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.
"The market’s battery cost has risen sharply in the past two years, and the decline in the price of points and the decline in subsidies have had a great impact on low-priced cars, especially for A00."
Li Jinyong said that the sales volume of new energy vehicles headed by A00 is the largest, and the scale effect is spelled out, and profits are made by volume. However, its profit is small, and its room for manoeuvre is small, which is the most affected this time. The mid-to-high-end models of around 300,000 are also affected, but there are many ways to digest them. After all, the added value is great: "This time, 200,000-300,000 cars have not increased their prices, but they are still reducing their prices. Why? There is a lot of room between the purchase cost and the sales price of these vehicles. The industrial cost of a car with a price of 200,000, including spare parts and steel plates, is about 120,000, which is about 6-7 fold. "
For this reason, the seemingly "strange" price increase and price reduction were staged simultaneously in this spring: in January 2023, the A-class, B-class and C-class of new energy passenger cars showed positive growth year-on-year, however, the A00-class and A0-class decreased year-on-year; On the other hand, "Catfish" Tesla stirred up the industry, and after its Model 3 and Model Y were greatly reduced in price, companies such as Wenjie, Tucki and Weilai also started the price reduction tide.
"In 2023, the new energy vehicle market will usher in a great change from policy and market two-wheel drive to market single-wheel drive, and the competition will become more and more fierce. At present, there are 56 new energy vehicles from 29 manufacturers on the market. After the country’s subsidy, except for car companies with strong industrial chains and rich product chains such as BYD and Tesla, most car companies are facing the pressure that car prices must be raised. " Zhang Hong said that under the influence of multiple factors, not only small and medium-sized car companies are having a hard time, but dealers who are caught between consumers who are holding money and car companies who are forced to cut prices will also be greatly affected.
"There is no doubt that a large number of players will be out." Li Jinyong said.
In fact, in order to facilitate the gradual weaning of manufacturers, the intensity of state subsidies has gradually decreased over the years: from 2017 to 2021, the proportion of new energy vehicles subsidized by the state has decreased year by year.Among them, it was 78% in 2017, and it has dropped to 63% in 2020 and reached 47% in 2021.. The subsidy price is also decreasing year by year: from 2015 to 2020, the average subsidy for new energy vehicles and bicycles decreased from 106,400 yuan to 23,000 yuan.
Under such a background, the consideration lies not only in support, but also in Darwin’s "natural selection": whether in 2016 or 2019, subsidies for new energy vehicles have experienced several sharp declines, and outstanding enterprises in the wave will survive, which will save money to expand production capacity, upgrade technology and iterate products.
Players who continue to indulge in "nipple music" are washed away and eliminated, becoming passers-by.
"These enterprises that mainly pursue subsidies, their products are not market-oriented pricing, but rely on policies to eat subsidies, such as BAIC New Energy." Li Jinyong said.
In the era of high subsidies, BAIC New Energy has been the first pure electric vehicle, with an annual sales of more than 100,000 vehicles. However, its car models have changed from oil to electricity, and its car design is aging. With the gradual withdrawal of subsidies, it will annihilate everyone. An intuitive example is that the company achieved a profit of 92 million yuan in 2019, but after deducting non-profits, its net profit reached 874 million yuan, of which the largest income in non-recurring profit and loss items came from government subsidies, amounting to 1.041 billion yuan: This means that BAIC New Energy at that time lived on government subsidies.
On the one hand, the amount of new energy subsidies is declining year by year, on the other hand, the threshold for access is gradually increasing. For example, in 2018, the minimum requirement for the driving range of pure electric vehicles was raised from 100 km to 150 km. It will rise to 250 kilometers in 2019 and become 300 kilometers in 2021.
As a result, many car companies that enjoy pleasure and are not enterprising in subsidies have been eliminated by the rising threshold year by year. For example, Zhidou Automobile, which was popular with Zhidou D2 model, was priced at 158,800 yuan at that time, and the lowest selling price was only 49,800 yuan, including various subsidies. This made it win the national sales champion with 23,000 vehicles in 2015, and by 2017, the sales volume of Zhidou reached the peak of 42,000 vehicles.
However, in 2018, after the subsidy threshold was raised, the sales of Zhidou showed a cliff-like decline. By the second half of 2019, Zhidou had been included in the list of executors for 48 times, and finally the company’s equity could only be auctioned. In just two years, the former sales champion has been separated from the future, which is embarrassing. And this is just a microcosm. Including Chery’s early mini pure electric vehicle eQ series, JAC iEV series, Changan Benben EV and other models, they were also lifted by the subsidy threshold and gradually declined until they disappeared.
"In the early days of the development of new energy vehicles, many mercenary car companies rushed into battle in order to cheat, and launched a series of models with unknown positioning, simple structure and rough quality. The only fate of such car companies is to go out." Zhang Hong said.
Since the initial attempt of "Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles Demonstration Project" in China in 2009, new energy vehicles have been listed as one of the "seven strategic emerging industries" in 2010, and the "Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry (2012-2020)" was put forward in the State Council in 2012.
In the past 14 years, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has increased from 80,000 vehicles in 2014 to 8 million vehicles now, and the national subsidy has followed all the way. The new energy vehicles in China have gradually changed from small to large and from weak to strong. Since 2015, China has ranked first in the world in terms of production and sales for seven consecutive years.
"If consumers have been relying on subsidies to consider buying new energy vehicles, then this is the sorrow of China’s new energy automobile industry!" Zhang Hong said: "No matter the minds of consumers or the products of car companies, they can’t be flowers in a greenhouse made of subsidies. They must experience storms in the fierce market competition and then become stronger and more mature."
Insiders told Netease Technology "Energy Field",The real vitality and competitiveness of car companies are not and should not rely on subsidies at all..
"What did BYD earn before 2021? Earn a billion dollars a year. But why did you suddenly make so much money in 2022? When the scale comes up, the algorithm of the entire marginal cost is different. "
Li Jinyong told Netease Technology "Energy Field" that the scale effect will determine the direct life and death of future car companies. For brands that sold less than 10,000 cars in those years, it is actually a matter of early and late death. Whether there is a state-funded withdrawal or a price reduction by Tesla, such brands are doomed to have no future.
An intuitive example happened in the last century: after the first assembly line production method, the annual output of Ford cars quickly broke through from 10,000 to 100,000+cars. Other cars often cost two or three thousand dollars, while Ford only sells for 850 dollars, but it can still make a high profit. By 1927, Ford launched the Model T, the price was as low as $290, and Ford’s market share in the United States was close to 50%.
"Whether it is a battery or a tram, scale reduction is also a very important direction. Therefore, when both technology and scale can reach the inflection point, in fact, the product is economical. " Yan Ying said.
"After more than ten years of development, new energy vehicles have produced a number of OEMs with strong R&D capabilities, mature product supply chains and colorful product lines like BYD and Tesla." In Zhang Hong’s view, the country’s compensation and retreat is only a secondary factor in this impact. In the past 13 years, small and medium-sized car enterprises, even some new force car-making enterprises, have shown weak anti-strike ability once they encounter the difficulties of soaring raw material prices, chip shortage and short supply of spare parts because the product supply chain relies too much on socialization. When R&D, vehicle delivery and marketing capabilities are not strong, it will become more difficult to seek financing for blood transfusion: "Even if winter comes in nature, their days will continue to face the test of severe winter."
Weaning, followed by closing the door, the new car-making forces that want to enter again will be difficult to get tickets in the future. The follow-up competition is likely to be a mutual fight between the main bodies of the stock.
"The stage of barbaric growth should be over."
A former employee in LI, an industry veteran who is now starting his own business, told Netease Technology Energy Field that from last year to now, he and several partners planned to start building cars, but the qualification problem became a "roadblock": "Whether it was the earliest OEM model like Weilai or the acquisition model, it is very difficult to approve now, and the country is gradually tightening."
In 2023, it is no longer easy for new entrants. Li Yinan, formerly known as Ren Zhengfei’s successor, went off to build a car, but the Freedom House he founded was frustrated for several years, and it ended hastily when he failed to deliver one. The qualification has become a problem for new entrants to get stuck in the neck.
No matter from what angle, a continuous farewell is inevitable for the only remaining players. "In the past three years, 75 brands have fallen. It is estimated that after 3 to 5 years, 60% to 70% of brands will face closure and transfer. We can predict that the competition in the future will still be very fierce, but the fallen brands will leave more market space and make the living brands have more room for development. " In January 2023, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, once said.
After comparing the latest quarterly financial reports of Tesla and Toyota, Netease Technology Energy Field found that the gross profit margin of Tesla bicycles was already eight times that of Toyota. Tesla sold a car with a profit of nearly 70,000 yuan before the price cut, and even after the price cut, there was a profit margin of 30,000 yuan. However, Weilai, Tucki and Ideality are in a state of losing money in selling cars. In the third quarter of 2022, they lost 100,000, 80,000 and 60,000 respectively in selling a car.
"For the models that are now sold in 100,000 and 200,000 years, the opportunity is still there." Li Jinyong said that it is a critical moment to test the strategic decision-making of business leaders if medium-sized and medium-sized car companies dare to follow Tesla to cut prices, and dare to reduce costs to fight for a future and seize the market: "If I say now that I can’t afford to drop, I will lose money, so don’t drop."
On the other hand, Li Jinyong said that when consumers are expecting to cut prices, when they get off the bus, they must change their thinking, and they must make market-based pricing, not cost pricing: "If you can’t do it, don’t participate, or you will be the future Nokia, and the future will definitely be eliminated. Not all car companies will be able to make it five years later and ten years later."
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