标签归档 武汉生活


[Xunxi Baoma] Spring is coming! Tell these idioms and things about beginning of spring to children.





February 3, 2021, 22:59:00

At 22: 59 today, the "beginning of spring" solar term will be ushered in

from this day onwards

The earth began to thaw.

The stinger gradually wakes up.

Beginning of spring is the first of the 24 solar terms.

Spring returns to the earth, which is the beginning of time series.

In our traditional culture,

There are many idioms about "spring"

Every time I read it, I always have a kind of

Feel like a spring breeze

Today, Xiaobian reveals "beginning of spring" with six idioms.

Read idioms with children.

Learn about these traditional cultural knowledge.

The Origin of beginning of spring in Spring Return to the Earth


A year’s plan starts with spring. The ancients in China attached great importance to "beginning of spring" and always regarded it as a festival.

The word "beginning of spring" appeared as early as three thousand years ago in the Zhou Dynasty. According to the Book of Rites, during the Zhou Dynasty, every time in "beginning of spring", the Emperor of Zhou personally led officials, governors and literati to hold a ceremony to welcome the Spring Festival in the eastern suburbs, and then rewarded his ministers and benefited the people.

After the Eastern Han Dynasty, the custom of "welcoming the Spring" appeared in the ruling and opposition parties, such as women’s "cutting the ribbon for swallows" as headdresses and pasting "Yichun" on doors. During the Tang and Song Dynasties, on the day of "beginning of spring", ministers below the prime minister would go to the DPRK to congratulate them. In the Ming and Qing dynasties, no matter "welcoming the spring" or "whipping the spring", the etiquette is extremely grand.

Beginning of spring’s Three Seasons in Spring.


According to the order of the twenty-four solar terms

Beginning of spring is the first solar term.

Also known as "DaChun"

It is the sixth "nine" after the winter solstice.

Therefore, there is a saying that "spring hits six or nine heads"

"Look at the willows across the river in May and June"

At this time, the festival will see a slight green.

In the eyes of the ancients

There are three iconic phenology in beginning of spring.

Wait, the east wind thaws.

The gentle east wind caressed the earth.

Waves gently shake green, frozen marks pin in the water.

Second, the sting insect begins to vibrate.

Hibernating animals don’t get up.

But I woke up and wanted to stretch.

The third time, the fish will lose ice.

Some ice began to melt, and fish could be seen.

But there are still some broken ice on the water.

It feels like a fish is swimming with ice on its back.

Of course, beginning of spring is just an idea.

After that, "the willow color is golden and tender, and the pear flower is snowy."

Is the epitome of spring phenology.

The day of beginning of spring is still warm and cold.

Beginning of spring customs full of spring.


This day in beginning of spring

Folk beliefs offer sacrifices to Mang God.

Namely Ju Mang.

It is the God of the East.

It symbolizes the arrival of spring and the growth of all things.

Purpose of sacrifice

Is to pray for a bumper harvest in agriculture

In beginning of spring, there was a custom of "biting spring" among the people.

Beginning of spring eats spring cakes because people.

Good wishes for "a year’s plan lies in spring"

And "biting spring" chewing radish, take the ancients.

The meaning of "biting the grass roots, you can do everything"

(Image source | Network)

Beginning of spring, this day.

Many places still have to "spring"

Also known as "whip spring cow"

Mould cattle with soil and stuff them with grains.

Worship, break, grab soil, pick up grain

It is called grabbing spring, and it is lucky to grab the cow’s head.

This way reflects

People’s good expectations for a bumper harvest of grain.

Comic book: Whip Spring

Image source | People’s Daily Online

After beginning of spring, wait until the spring blossoms.

Even more, travel together.

Commonly known as going out of the city to explore the spring.

This is also the main form of spring outing.

Beginning of spring proverb of beautiful spring scenery.


At the end of the year, beginning of spring plans to farm early.

A year’s plan lies in spring, and a lifetime’s plan lies in diligence.

In spring, there is a struggle for the sun, and in summer, it is not too late to have a big event in a year.

It rains in beginning of spring, get up early and go to bed late.

Spring is chilly and summer is cold and rainy.

The ship arrives without waiting for passengers, and the season waits for no man.

One day by mistake, one year by mistake.

If you want good crops, it is early all the year round.

Spring is cold and summer is stuffy and rainy, autumn is cold and winter is dry and windy.

Beginning of spring’s poems full of spring scenery


Beginning of spring on the 7th day of the first month in Beijing.

Don Luo Yin

One two three four five six seven,

Every tree is born today.

Far away, the geese return to the clouds,

Fish swimming near the water burst out of the ice.

Minus Magnolia beginning of spring

Song Sushi

Spring cattle and spring staff,

Infinite spring breeze comes to the sea.

With spring work,

Dyed pink as flesh.

Spring banners win in spring,

A spring breeze woke up the wine.

Not like the end of the world,

Roll up poplars like snowflakes.

Snow in beginning of spring since the morning.

Don Zhang Jiuling

Suddenly to Lin Tingxue,

Yaohua is everywhere.

At the beginning of this year,

Last night, I accompanied the Spring Festival.

Bamboo in front of Yurun window,

Plums in the flower garden.

Eastern suburb fast sacrifice place,

You should see the five gods.

Yu Meiren See Mei Zuo in Yizhou

Song Huang tingjian

There is also a letter from Jiangnan in the end of the world.

A plum blossom knows spring is near.

The midnight wind is fine and fragrant late,

Don’t come to dawn and spread all over the south branch.

Jade platform should be jealous of powder flowers,

Floating to the eyebrows.

I want to be deep in my life.

Go to the country and be a teenager at the age of ten.

Chun Hua Qiu Shi zhi beginning of spring health


The key to health care in beginning of spring lies in disease prevention and health care.

Especially in early spring, when the weather turns from cold to warm, all kinds of pathogenic bacteria and viruses grow and multiply. In order to avoid the occurrence of diseases in spring, in the preventive measures, we must first eliminate the source of infection; Second, always open the window to keep the air fresh; Third, we should strengthen exercise and improve the body’s defense ability.

Spring is the best time to exercise and keep fit.

Gymnastics, jogging, walking and outing are all good choices. People who are engaged in exercise in spring have strong resistance, and the early morning is the time when the sun is shining, which is most suitable for exercise.

Dressing should be "thick at the bottom and thin at the top"

After beginning of spring, although the temperature began to rise and the rainfall began to increase, beginning of spring is only the beginning of spring, especially in the north, where there will be a period of cold and warm, and "cold in late spring" often strikes, so we should pay more attention to keeping warm and protecting the yang.

Live up to spring.


In less than ten days, we will usher in the Spring Festival.

Beginning of spring is approaching the end of the year

The rich flavor of the year began to diffuse.

This past year

No matter what ups and downs there have been.

Let it go.

Let’s start with beginning of spring.

Regain confidence and courage in the new year.

Pay for love and work hard for dreams.

Cherish spring scenery

Source: China Education News.

Original title: "[Xunxi Baoma] Spring is coming! Tell these idioms and things about beginning of spring to children.

Read the original text


Half-year exam for beauty companies: make-up can’t compete with skin care, and cheap ones can’t sell at high prices?

Source: Time Weekly-Time Online

  Consumption is a video column of’ No.19 Business Research Society’ under Time Weekly. By the reporter of Time Weekly’s consumer group, we can interpret the big and small things in the consumer field in popular and lively language.

  With the disclosure of financial reports in the first half of this year, coupled with the prospectus just submitted by a new company, the transcripts of domestic beauty products in the first half of this year are beginning to take shape.

  It is worth mentioning that it is different from the previous "fair price" and "flat replacement" route, including most domestic beauty products such as YSG.NYSE, shanghai jahwa (600315.SH), Shangmei Group, Polaiya (603605.SH) and Betani (300957.SZ).

  Don’t, cheap beauty is not popular?

  If the time is set back to 2019, with the popularity of the first year of live broadcast, the new domestic beauty products at that time can be roughly divided into two categories: one is to follow the "fair price" route like a perfect diary, and the other is to create an elegant and dignified Chinese style. Huaxizi faction.

  These two brands are also the first brands with the help of koc, a small red book. At the beginning of the domestic beauty trend, the sales volume was also "leveraged". In 2019, Perfect Diary won Tmall’s make-up sales champion from January to November with sales exceeding 1.5 billion yuan. In the same year, Huaxi’s sales also reached 1.1 billion yuan.

Source: screenshot of the video number of No.19 Commercial Research Institute

  The scene of the hot sale of domestic beauty products in those years seems to be still vivid. However, since the second half of last year, the sales of domestic beauty cosmetics have declined. By the first half of this year, the consumption of beauty cosmetics has obviously become more rational and restrained.

  Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June this year, the total retail sales of cosmetics nationwide was 190.5 billion yuan. Among them, the retail sales in March, April and May fell for three consecutive years year-on-year, and only the first and second ends achieved data growth, and the total retail sales decreased by 2.5% compared with the same period of last year. This is also the first decline in the total retail sales of cosmetics in the first half of the year in the past 10 years.

  At the same time, the financial report data of some domestic beauty brands can also explain the problem.

  Take the financial report of Perfect Diary’s parent company Yixian E-commerce in the second quarter of this year as an example. Its beauty business revenue decreased by over 50% year-on-year, the overall revenue decreased by 37.59% year-on-year, and the net loss was 266 million yuan. The main reason for the decline in single-season revenue is the decline in the company’s makeup sector revenue. In the second quarter of this year, the income of beauty brands such as Perfect Diary, Little Ondine and Pink Bear of Yixian E-commerce decreased by 50.5%.

  However, Yixian e-commerce has already deployed high-end brands in skin care in the early years, such as acquiring high-end brands including Galénic Clanli, DR.WU and British skin care brand EveLom, and the layout of these non-parity brands has also received some positive feedback.

  In the second quarter of 2022, Yixian E-commerce Company recorded a net income of 318 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. Among them, the net income of the above three brands increased by 112% year-on-year, exceeding the overall performance growth rate in the skin care field.

  Now, it seems that it is wise for some beauty companies that used to focus only on the field of make-up not to put their eggs in one basket. However, the skin care track is also a fierce competition zone.

  In the first half of this year, shanghai jahwa, an old domestic brand specializing in skin care products, had a revenue of 3.715 billion yuan, down 11.76% year-on-year; The net profit of shareholders of listed companies was 158 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.84%; The gross profit margin was 59.91%, down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, and it once again became a rare enterprise in the industry with a gross profit margin of less than 60%.

  Although shanghai jahwa pointed out in the financial report that it was caused by the epidemic situation, it is still difficult to hide its embarrassing situation of "not high enough, not low enough" in products.

  At present, the brands of shanghai jahwa’s shanghai jahwa’s beauty and skin care products mainly include Meijiajing, Liushen, herborist, Yuze and Shuangmei. Although their brands have enough "national recognition", if they are refined into various categories, the twin sisters who are positioned in the high-end market do not seem to run out, while Liushen and Meijiajing, which are oriented to the mass market, are also facing the dilemma of brand aging, and Meijiajing even experienced a decline in revenue year after year.

  In contrast, beauty brands with mid-to-high-end positioning and characteristic big items are more popular. For example, Shangmei Group and Polaiya, which have played a relatively "slippery" skin care concept in recent years, have launched their main big items with double A alcohol essence, while the latter has early C and late A essence.

Source: screenshot of the video number of No.19 Commercial Research Institute

  If we say that most of the traditional beauty brands are only some items with high profit margins. Then, in recent years, some domestic medical brands have enjoyed the pleasure of making money brought by high gross profit.

  For example, Giant Bio’s gross profit margin was as high as 87.2% in 2021. According to its prospectus, in 2021, the company still made a net profit of 800 million yuan despite spending as much as 350 million yuan on marketing.

  Fuerjia, who is also a brand of medical beauty, just submitted the prospectus. From 2019 to 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 76.97%, 76.47% and 81.95% respectively, showing an overall growth trend.

  Betaine, known as the "first share of medical beauty", earned 2.05 billion yuan in the first half of this year, of which 1.828 billion was from "skin care products" alone, accounting for nearly 90% of the main business income; The income of "make-up" category only accounts for 1.08% of the main business income.

  Make-up is not as good as skin care, and selling cheap ones is not as good as selling expensive ones, which has basically become the general trend. According to the incomplete statistics of Lianshang. com, there were 39 financing incidents in the field of beauty cosmetics from January to June 2022, among which 14 financing incidents occurred in the field of skin care, accounting for about 36%; In the field of cosmetics, there were only 4 financing incidents, accounting for about 10%.

  Not only domestic products, but also foreign brands are basically this path.

  Once a cheap choice, the Korean brand Amore is also going downhill. Since 2019, its makeup brand Yuefeng Shiyi has closed more than 600 stores; Even Amore’s makeup brand Yidi House and high-end brand Heyan have closed all offline stores in the China market last year and this year, which is a losing streak.

  Coincidentally, Maybelline, a European and American popular brand, also announced a total withdrawal of cabinets two months ago. You know, in the embryonic stage of the domestic makeup market, Maybelline can be said to be the makeup enlightenment of the post-80 s and post-90 s.

  However, in such a large China market, how can foreign beauty brands let go easily?

  On May 10th this year, Shiseido launched its first special investment fund in the China market. Shiseido cooperated with Boyu Investment to inject 501 million yuan, with Shiseido accounting for 98% of the shares. It will focus on emerging brands in frontier markets such as beauty and health, as well as investment opportunities of relevant upstream and downstream technical service companies.

  At the same time, L ‘Oré al also signed a contract with Oriental Beauty Valley in May this year, announcing the establishment of the first investment company in China market, which is committed to investing in innovative beauty technology. Carita CARIDAE, a French luxury cinema brand owned by L ‘Oreal, also officially entered the China market in August.

  Overseas brands are still eyeing the mid-to-high-end layout, and it remains to be seen whether all kinds of domestic beauty cosmetics can move from "online celebrity sales" to "long sales".


It’s snowing Many places in Guangxi welcome the first snow in 2024.

Snow in Guyu Village, Anma Township, Yizhou, Hechi. (Photo/He Taowen/Nie Peibin)

Snow in Guyu Village, Anma Township, Yizhou, Hechi. (Photo/He Taowen/Nie Peibin)

Snow falls in vegetable fields in Sanbao Village, Sanbao Township, Tiane County, Hechi. (Photo/Xie Cuiting Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snow Scene of Zafu Village, Jiayou Town, lingyun county, Baise. (Photo/Hu Renhuan Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snow covers the car in Zafu Village, Jiayou Town, lingyun county, Baise. (Photo/Hu Renhuan Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snow Scene in Xiasan Village, Jiayou Town, lingyun county, Baise. (Photo/Yang Zaifuwen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene of lingchuan county Meteorological Bureau in Guilin. (Photo/Deng Suhua Yuwen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene in observation field of lingchuan county Meteorological Bureau, Guilin. (Photo/Deng Suhua Yuwen/Nie Peibin)

Snowflakes are fluttering in the urban area of Guilin. (Photo/Peng Wenyu Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snowflakes are fluttering in the urban area of Guilin. (Photo/Peng Wenyu Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snowflakes are fluttering in the urban area of Guilin. (Photo/Peng Wenyu Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snowflakes are fluttering in the urban area of Guilin. (Photo/Peng Wenyu Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene of xing an weather station in Guilin. (Photo/Li Huiling Wen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene of Longji terraced fields in Longsheng, Guilin. (Photo/Meng Jingwen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene of Longji terraced fields in Longsheng, Guilin. (Photo/Meng Jingwen/Nie Peibin)

People play with snow in Quanzhou, Guilin. (Photo/Zhao Zuhuawen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene in Ziyuan County, Guilin. (Photo/Tan Qiongwen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene in Ziyuan County, Guilin. (Photo/Tan Qiongwen/Nie Peibin)

Snow scene in Ziyuan County, Guilin. (Photo/Tan Qiongwen/Nie Peibin)

China Weather Network News It’s snowing! From January 21 to 22, 2024, affected by cold air, the weather in Guangxi was cold, and some areas in the north ushered in the first snow in 2024. The picture shows the snow scene in Ziyuan County, Guilin. (Photo/Tan Qiongwen/Nie Peibin)


The reform plan of art examination will be released in many places, and the enrollment of art examination will have these new changes!

  BEIJING, Beijing, March 15 (Reporter Yuan Xiuyue) The Beijing Education Examinations Institute issued a notice on the 14th, and by 2024, six art majors, including music, dance, performance, broadcasting and hosting, art and design, and calligraphy, will be fully implemented in the city.

  Since the beginning of this year, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hunan and other places have also issued implementation plans, and the timetable for the reform of the college entrance examination is accelerating.

  Webpage screenshot

  Beijing will implement unified examination for six art majors next year.

  According to the Notice of Beijing Municipality on Further Strengthening and Improving the Enrollment of Art Majors in Colleges and Universities (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), the enrollment of art majors in colleges and universities adopts the examination evaluation method of "cultural quality+professional ability", and the cultural quality uses the results of the national college entrance examination and the professional ability uses the results of the art professional ability examination.

  The art professional ability examination includes the city-wide unified examination and the college examination, and the classified examination is implemented according to the requirements of selecting and cultivating different art professionals. The city’s unified examination is organized by Beijing Education Examinations Institute, and the college examinations are organized by relevant universities.

  The "Notice" mentioned that by 2024, the city-wide unified professional examinations for six art majors, including music, dance, table (guide) performance, broadcasting and hosting, art and design, and calligraphy, will be fully implemented.

  Music includes seven majors, such as music performance, musicology, composition and composition technology theory; dance includes six majors, such as dance performance, dance science and dance choreography; table (directing) performance includes five majors, such as performance (drama film and television performance), drama film and television director and musical; and art and design includes 28 majors, such as fine arts, painting, sculpture and photography, in addition to broadcasting and hosting and calligraphy.


  The "Notice" also mentioned that the scope and scale of school examinations should be strictly controlled. For the art enrollment majors covered by the Beijing unified examination, in principle, colleges and universities in Beijing should directly adopt the results of the unified examination. For a few art colleges with distinctive professional characteristics and high quality of personnel training, and high-level art majors with high requirements for candidates’ artistic talent, professional skills or basic skills, they can apply for organizing school examinations on the basis of the city’s unified examinations according to procedures.

  Colleges and universities in Beijing that organize school examinations should actively take online examinations or use the results of provincial unified examinations for primary elections, and strictly control the number of on-site school examinations. In principle, it should not exceed 6-mdash of the enrollment plan of relevant majors; Eight times.

  From next year, there will be new changes in the college entrance examination art test!

  In 2021, the Ministry of Education issued "Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening and Improving the Enrollment of Art Majors in Colleges and Universities" (hereinafter referred to as "Guiding Opinions"), and comprehensively launched the enrollment reform of art examinations.

  It can be noted that since the beginning of this year, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hunan and other provinces have issued relevant implementation plans to promote the enrollment reform of the college entrance examination.

  According to relevant local documents, from 2024 onwards, there will be several new changes in the enrollment of college entrance examination art examination. First, the college entrance examination art test will enter the "unified examination era". It is mentioned in the Guiding Opinions that all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) should actively create conditions to gradually expand the scope of the provincial-level unified examination for art majors, and basically achieve full coverage of the provincial-level unified examination for art majors by 2024.

  At present, the provincial-level unified examinations for art majors in various places set up six categories, including music, dance, performance, broadcasting and hosting, art and design, and calligraphy. All localities have issued documents to make specific provisions on the subjects, scores, contents, forms, requirements and various aspects of examination organization and implementation.

  In addition, many places also informed that starting from 2024, there will be no more inter-provincial examination sites, and all college art majors will be organized at the school location.

  Second, some art majors will cancel the professional ability examination. According to the above Notice of Beijing Education Examinations Institute, since 2024, art majors such as art history theory, drama, film and television literature in colleges and universities will be selected according to the results of the cultural courses in the college entrance examination and the comprehensive quality evaluation of candidates.

  Among them, art majors that no longer organize professional ability examinations include art history, art management, intangible cultural heritage protection, drama, film studies, drama film and television literature, radio and television director, and film and television technology.

  Third, the performance requirements of cultural courses will be gradually improved. Zhejiang Education Examinations Institute requires that from 2024 onwards, the art majors in colleges and universities that organize school examinations will be selected according to the candidates’ school examination results on the basis that the results of the college entrance examination and cultural courses in Zhejiang Province are qualified in principle and meet the minimum requirements set by the school. According to the enrollment situation, the school can apply for an appropriate reduction in the performance requirements of cultural courses, but it shall not be less than 75% of the general class.

  Hunan Education Examinations Institute mentioned that colleges and universities are encouraged to further improve the requirements for admission of cultural achievements on the control scores uniformly delineated by Hunan Province. On this basis, in the future, we will gradually improve the cultural performance requirements of the college entrance examination for arts majors. From 2025, the admission control scores of relevant subjects will be increased from 75% and 70% of the minimum control scores of ordinary undergraduate courses to 80% and 75% respectively.

  The Guangdong Education Examinations Institute also mentioned that in 2024, the proportion of the total scores of candidates’ cultural courses with the combined total scores of music, dance, performance, art and design, and calligraphy was appropriately increased. (End)


The original small group has an annual income of 300 million? She finally forwarded the clarification: because of this, I got the nickname "Tuan 300 million"

Original title: The small group has an annual income of 300 million? She finally forwarded the clarification: because of this, I got the nickname "Tuan 300 million"

"Tuan 300 million"

A long time ago, it was reported that some well-known anchors were worth a lot of money, such as a small group that never showed up, and she could earn 300 million yuan a year. However, the news is a bit strange. In fact, two years ago, someone said that the small group was the anchor with an annual income of 300 million. Recently, a so-called "list" was exposed, saying that the small group earned 300 million yuan a year.

If that’s the case, why hasn’t her price remained the same for two years? In fact, the popularity of the small group was higher before, and now the number of fans is higher. In any case, there should always be some changes in her worth. Nothing has changed in two years, and the data are exactly the same, so the authenticity is open to question.

Soon, the leaderboard said that they didn’t make this kind of table, and the source of the data was not clear, which means it’s not true. Now, Xiao Tuantuan finally clarified her worth, and she joked with fans: Because of this, I have a nickname "Tuan 300 million". Her worth has been fixed at 300 million, so everyone is so spiteful.

Real worth

Xiao Tuantuan stood up and clarified herself, proving that she really didn’t have such a high price, but the fans were adamant. She teased Xiao Tuantuan in the comment area and teased her price. Xiao Tuantuan has been a well-known anchor for a long time, and she usually has no entertainment activities, just playing with her girlfriends. Xiao Tuantuan should have saved a lot of money now. What is her price?

In fact, the signing fee of many big-name anchors is only tens of millions, and it is not bad to reach 100 million with the money earned from various promotions. The small group is not so popular, and its real worth should be tens of millions. Moreover, this money is not only for her, but also for the guild, the team and the platform.

The first is the platform. The money earned by the anchor often needs to be given as a gift, which is earned by the platform. Gifts from fans, the platform will also get a big head. In addition, the small group has a guild called Chongqing Wan. Not long ago, they also had some disagreements, because the small group wanted to leave. Unfortunately, the three-party contract still expired in two years, and the small group was registered by the guild. The anchor was a little sad and cried directly.

Therefore, the guild will also take some money. Then there is the small group’s team. She is also a big anchor and needs her own team to take care of daily affairs. These staff members are paid, but they just don’t know whether it is given by the guild or the small group. There is a high probability that it is her own.

Personal point of view

Therefore, the small group seems to have made a lot of money. In fact, it is divided into so many people, and there is no such high annual salary at all. Is the small group really earning 300 million yuan a year? She finally forwarded the clarification: because of this, I got the nickname "Tuan 300 million". This article is completely original, welcome to pay attention and take you to learn together!

Editor in charge:


Focus: The real estate market is gradually stabilizing and commercial real estate investment is active.

Image source/Xinhua News Agency
■ China Economic Times reporter Zhou xuesong
Recently, Ni Hong, Party Secretary and Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Rerublic of China publicly stated that this year’s real estate market is generally high, low and stable. As for the next policy direction, Ni Hong said that the real estate market has its particularity, and the transaction volume and price of each city are very different. Regarding real estate regulation and control, it emphasizes the policy of the city, the precise policy, and one city and one policy.
Experts interviewed by China Economic Times said that the incremental real estate market has peaked, but the real estate stock market is huge, especially the huge scale of urban renewal, which is expected to drive the real estate market to usher in the "second spring".
Real estate is expected to usher in the "second spring"
Ni Hong said that from the data, policies and measures such as "recognizing the house but not the loan" and "reducing the down payment ratio and interest rate" have played a positive role. From January to October, although the transaction volume of first-hand houses decreased, the second-hand houses increased. First, the second-hand houses together achieved positive growth year-on-year. In addition, the solid progress of the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings has led to a year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in the completed housing area in the country, which also reflects that it is effective for local governments to help enterprises bail out.
Chen Gui, executive president of Beijing Real Estate Society and founder of Wharf Think Tank, said in an interview with China Economic Times that with the real estate market entering the stock age, some old houses built in the past can no longer meet people’s needs for a better life, and large-scale urban renewal is expected to promote the "second spring" of the real estate market.
At the same time, rigid demand and improvement demand are still huge. However, due to limited income, the current real estate market demand has not been well met, and the price is in the exploratory stage. As long as the economy recovers and the price adjustment is in place, demand will break out again.
For the overall judgment of the next real estate market trend, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development believes that at present, China’s real estate market is in a transitional period, and the future sustainable development still has solid support. Under the new model, real estate enterprises should have a clear understanding. What they want now is high quality, new technology and good service. Whoever can build a good house for the masses and provide good service for the masses will have a market and development.
Ni Hong said that the development model that used to pursue speed and quantity in solving the "whether there is" period can no longer meet the new requirements of solving the "whether it is good" problem and high-quality development stage, and it is urgent to build a new development model. In terms of system and mechanism, on the one hand, it is to establish a new mechanism for the linkage of "people, housing, land and money", starting with the scientific allocation of factor resources, and setting housing by people, land and money by housing to prevent market ups and downs; On the other hand, it is necessary to establish a life-cycle management mechanism of houses from development and construction to maintenance and use, including reform and development methods, financing methods and sales methods, and establish systems such as house physical examination, house pension and home insurance. In terms of implementation, it is necessary to implement the "three major projects" of planning and building affordable housing, transforming villages in cities and building public infrastructure for both peacetime and emergency use.
In an interview with China Economic Times, a medium-sized real estate developer said that in the past, financial support for real estate development mainly supported large-scale real estate enterprises, and small and medium-sized real estate enterprises did not support them enough or even received attention. However, recently, the housing enterprises that have problems are basically large-scale real estate enterprises, and financial institutions must have mortgages for the financing requirements of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises. On the contrary, many small and medium-sized real estate enterprises are living relatively well now, which is worth pondering. The reform of the future real estate development model must start from the financial field.
Commercial real estate investment is more active.
From the horizontal comparison, the current real estate market in China is still remarkable. According to the latest capital tracking data of Jones Lang LaSalle, the total investment in commercial real estate in the Asia-Pacific region in the third quarter of 2023 was US$ 21.3 billion, down 22% year-on-year, and China Mainland became the most active market in the Asia-Pacific region.
Pang Shudong, head of investment and capital market department of Jones Lang LaSalle in China, told reporters: "The real estate industry in China has gone through many cycles, whether it is a strong cycle or a weak cycle. In the long run, investors still hold a positive attitude towards the real estate market in China. We have seen that investors have seized special opportunities and made significant progress in strategic acquisitions. These acquisitions will bring rich returns to them in the future. "
The data shows that in the third quarter of 2023, the total investment in the Hong Kong market reached 800 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The Japanese market recorded an investment of US$ 4.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Investment in Australia reached US$ 3.8 billion, down 47% year-on-year. Singapore’s total investment in the third quarter was $2 billion, down 11%. Mainland China has become the most active market in the Asia-Pacific region, with a total transaction volume of US$ 4.7 billion, an increase of 43% over the same period last year.
Pang Shudong told reporters that the investment activity in China’s mainland market rebounded after the second quarter of this year, mainly due to the strong acquisition actions of domestic buyers, including capital from domestic insurance, government platforms and financial institutions. Generally speaking, Jones Lang LaSalle maintains confidence in the resilience and long-term attractiveness of commercial real estate in the Asia-Pacific region.
Looking forward to 2024, Fitch Ratings predicts that the business environment of Chinese-funded housing enterprises will still be full of challenges in 2024, but with the help of government support policies, the sales of high-tier cities should gradually stabilize, thus laying the foundation for the long-term recovery of the market. Fitch predicts that the contracted sales will drop by 0%-5% in 2024, which means that the revenue will reach 10 trillion -10.5 trillion RMB.
Jin Tailun, senior director of corporate rating of Fitch Ratings Limited, told China Economic Times that the differentiation pattern of China’s real estate industry will continue: the sales of economically developed regions and cities will stabilize in the next 12 months, while the road for low-tier cities to absorb unsold housing stock is still long. Fitch believes that although the government’s measures aimed at improving the financing channels of private housing enterprises are intensively introduced, the dominant position of state-owned housing enterprises will be further expanded in 2024.
In addition, Fitch expects that the government will continue to work to curb the downward pressure on the real estate market and affect the stability of the system, and will issue follow-up measures to avoid negative interference to the market due to the backlog of unfinished real estate projects and large fluctuations in housing prices.
The copyright of this WeChat official account belongs to China Economic Times. If you reprint or quote the contents of this article, you must obtain permission, and indicate that it was transferred from China Economic Times.

Real estate recovery can be expected

Lian Ping/Wen

In the first half of the year, the recovery of the real estate market was difficult. Real estate sales showed a positive signal at the beginning of the year and fell again in the second quarter. House prices generally bottomed out, new house prices generally showed signs of stabilization, and second-hand house prices continued to fall. The financial situation of housing enterprises is tight, land acquisition is cautious, and land transactions continue to grow negatively. The special loan of "Baojiaolou" promoted the continuous improvement of the completion end, the investment in new housing construction and Jian ‘an project was slow, and the decline in real estate investment narrowed slightly.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the real estate market may still face a "headwind" in a short period of time. The Politburo meeting brought a long-lost warm wind to the market. Housing policy will increase support in the second half of the year. The interest rate of individual housing loan policy is expected to remain low, and the market interest rate may be slightly lower. It is estimated that the annual residential sales are still expected to achieve a slight positive growth, the overall house price will gradually stabilize, and the supply and demand structure of the land market will improve. It is expected that more effective positive policies will be introduced in the second half of the year to promote the "second half" of real estate projects and alleviate the debt problem of housing enterprises. It is expected that the decline in real estate investment in the whole year will be narrower than that in the first half of the year.

I. Market Operation Outlook in the Second Half of the Year

1. This round of real estate cycle tends to be weak recovery.

The real estate market did recover in the first half of the year. With the implementation of previous policies and measures, the dark moment of real estate has passed and the recovery channel has been opened. Although the first quarter of the property market is fleeting, the real estate industry still has the momentum of sustainable development. First, the policy is in a relatively supportive stage. The further implementation of the previous property market policy and the continued relaxation of the subsequent property market policy will continue to provide a relatively relaxed policy support environment for the real estate industry. Second, the income of residents is gradually improving. With the economic recovery, the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased by 5.4% in the first half of the year, up 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Third, the continuous advancement of new urbanization continues to provide effective demand for the real estate market. In 2022, China’s urbanization rate is 65.2%, and the household registration rate is around 47%, which is far from the average level of 80% in developed economies. In the coming period, China is still in the rapid development stage of new urbanization, and the huge demand potential released in this process will provide strong support for the real estate market. Fourth, the fading of factors such as epidemic disturbance has promoted the rapid release of the backlog of demand.

At present, the purchasing power of residential departments is not as good as similar cycles in the past. In the past two decades, there have been three negative growth in real estate sales area, in 2008, 2014 and 2019. Among them, 2008 was hit by the global financial crisis, when the growth rate of disposable income of urban households was above 14%; The growth rate of disposable income of urban households was around 8%-9% when real estate sales declined in the last two times, but now, after three years of epidemic, the growth rate of disposable income of urban households is only around 5%. The slowdown of residents’ income growth is one of the important factors to curb the expansion of housing demand.

Housing financial support policies are relatively mild. Mortgage interest rate policy, the rate of interest rate reduction is relatively limited. The inflection point of this round of mortgage interest rate began at the end of the third quarter of 2021, and by the end of the second quarter of 2023, the LPR was reduced by 45 basis points, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 15 basis points, with a total reduction of 60 basis points. Although this is related to the current management of the overall domestic bank loan interest rate level, it is relatively small compared with the previous 100 and 150 basis points.

Real estate developers actually get less financial support. Although since the third quarter of 2022, commercial banks have gradually improved their loans to housing enterprises under the promotion of the special loan of "guaranteed property" and the policy of "three arrows of finance", considering that the target of policy support is mainly high-quality housing enterprises, the financing difficulties of some small and medium-sized housing enterprises with relatively poor qualifications have not been effectively solved. By the end of the first half of 2023, the off-balance-sheet financing of real estate enterprises continued to decrease, and many other listed real estate enterprises were told by the exchange that there was a risk of delisting, and the private financing capacity was relatively lacking. In the first half of the year, the self-raised funds of real estate enterprises (accounting for 35% of the sources of housing enterprises’ funds in 2022) decreased by more than 20% year-on-year, which was very rare in the past.

Under the background of the real estate support policy of most local governments in China, the central bank, policy banks and state-owned banks have increased the investment in housing financial resources, and launched development loan support plans, rescue funds, rental housing financial loan support tools and so on. Due to the impact of the epidemic and the pressure of long-term debt of real estate enterprises, it has had a great impact on the two important sectors of the real estate market-the residential sector and the real estate enterprises. It is difficult for the real estate market to repair as quickly as in 2009, 2013 and 2016, and the recovery cycle of this round of real estate market is likely to be weaker than the previous recovery cycle.

Based on the comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the real estate market may be in a weak recovery situation in general during the year. With the support of relatively loose housing policy, the situation of further rapid decline in the short term has been alleviated, but compared with previous recovery cycles, there may be many twists and turns in the recovery process, and the poor actual capital turnover of some housing enterprises may lead to the overall real estate construction investment is difficult to improve comprehensively. The expected return of real estate investment comes at a time when the sustained recovery of commercial housing sales and external financial support are needed. The downside risks of investment still exist during the year, and the drag on economic growth still needs attention.

2. The real estate policy is expected to further increase support.

The real estate policy will remain warm in the second half of the year. In July, the Politburo meeting decided to "adapt to the new situation of great changes in the supply and demand of China’s real estate market and adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner". The basic idea of supporting policies is to continue to focus on improving housing sales and activating demand. At the same time, on the basis of the existing conditions, the policy will enhance the ability of high-quality housing enterprises to acquire land and expand, strengthen the investment in the construction of new and guaranteed buildings, and prevent large-scale accidents of housing enterprises as much as possible. Under the policy background of "staying in a house without speculation" and "making policy for the city", all localities will further explore the introduction of policies conducive to the stabilization of the real estate market, so as to gradually realize the goal of "three stabilities" in the real estate market.

On the demand side, the adjustment method is mainly to lower the threshold of buying houses and increase transaction activity. The mortgage interest rate is expected to drop slightly. With the central bank lowering the LPR benchmark interest rate in June, the benchmark mortgage interest rate of commercial banks will be lowered accordingly, and the first and second home mortgage interest rates are expected to fall further. The restrictive housing purchase policy is expected to be further loosened. It is expected that more third-tier cities will follow Yangzhou’s practice in the second half of the year and gradually cancel previous measures such as restricting purchases, loans and sales to promote the recovery of the property market. There may be more cities adopting the second-hand housing transaction mode of "mortgage transfer", moderately lowering the tax rate of second-hand housing transactions and reducing the brokerage service rate. For the first-tier and second-tier housing market with tight supply and demand, it is not excluded to gradually and moderately cancel the restrictive housing purchase policy for some or all urban areas when necessary, and increase the housing purchase subsidy to boost the confidence of the housing transaction market.

On the supply side, the main ways of policy support are to ensure the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises, do a good job in risk management and control of housing enterprises and optimize the land transaction system. At the end of June, the central bank and the General Administration of Financial Supervision extended the two important financing businesses of real estate enterprises until the end of 2024, and proposed that the next stage will keep the real estate financing reasonable and moderate, increase the financial support of Baojiaolou, and promote the marketization of industry risks. It is expected that relevant departments will speed up the examination and approval of bond financing and equity financing of housing enterprises, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry (especially for high-quality housing enterprises), promote mergers and acquisitions of the industry, and continuously improve and optimize the assets and liabilities of housing enterprises. It is expected that the credit resources of "Baojiaolou" may increase in the second half of the year, which will accelerate the completion of commercial housing and the sale of existing homes. There is still room for improvement in the land market. It is expected that some big cities will gradually introduce high-quality land and increase the proportion of residential land supply. The rules of land auction may be loosened in terms of reducing the proportion of allocation or self-holding, the proportion of deposit, and the payment period, so as to reduce the funds occupied by real estate enterprises. Conditional cities may moderately increase the premium rate of land auction and increase the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises including private enterprises.

3. Investment confidence in the real estate market still needs to be boosted.

In the second half of the year, the sales of commercial housing may be suppressed first and then stabilized. At present, the foundation for the full recovery of the real estate market is not solid. Demand is mainly concentrated in first-tier cities and surrounding third-tier cities and key second-tier cities, and the housing demand accumulated over the past two years is expected to continue to be released. After the rapid release at the beginning of the year, it may enter a steady state in the remaining months, and the anxiety about the housing market may continue into the third quarter and become the lowest point in the year. In the fourth quarter, with the recovery of residents’ income and the completion of housing, it is expected to push up sales and pick up. The traditional "Golden September and Silver 10" market may be difficult to reproduce, but the high-end market in some big cities still has good appeal. The low base in the fourth quarter of 2022 will also help the growth of real estate sales in the fourth quarter technically. It is estimated that the sales area of commercial housing will increase slightly by about 2%-3% year-on-year, and the sales will turn from negative to positive.

The improvement of sales margin will help more cities to stop falling and stabilize housing prices. The month-on-month trend of commercial housing prices is basically synchronized with the performance of housing sales. It is expected that house prices may decline slightly in the third quarter and return to positive in the fourth quarter. The inventory of commercial housing in most second-and third-tier cities is at a relatively high level, and the process of destocking is relatively tortuous. Combined with the performance of similar cycles, it is estimated that by the end of the year, the price of new houses in China will increase by 1.5% year-on-year, the price of second-hand houses will increase by 0.5% year-on-year, and house prices in many cities will "turn from falling to rising". Housing prices in some big cities are relatively firm, which is due to the low inventory of existing commercial houses and the rising land prices in the past three to four quarters. It is estimated that the price of new houses in first-tier cities will increase by 3% year-on-year, and the price of second-hand houses will increase by 2% year-on-year.

The land market will still focus on big cities and their surrounding areas. Housing enterprises’ own interest expenses and debt repayment pressure are still not small. The main participants in the local auction market are still central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises with relatively stable styles. It is unlikely that private housing enterprises will significantly increase their land reserves during the year, but they may participate selectively in the second half of the year when the capital situation is relatively abundant. It is expected that some big cities will release more high-quality land plots. The central bank has indicated its support attitude towards the development loans of high-quality housing enterprises. Objectively, some high-quality housing enterprises also need to replenish their warehouses. According to estimates, the inventory (land reserve) of listed high-quality real estate enterprises is at a relatively low level. Based on the comprehensive calculation, the ratio of inventory to total assets of the top 30 real estate enterprises listed in A shares and H shares fell to 45.9% by the end of 2022, the second lowest since the epidemic in 2020. It is not difficult to explain why in the first half of 2023, state-owned enterprises such as China Resources, Poly and China Shipping ranked among the top three in terms of land acquisition amount during the year.

Confidence in real estate investment is still insufficient. Considering that the improvement of housing sales and land market is not fully improved, and most housing enterprises are still trapped and the financial situation is tight, the regional real estate investment mainly depends on the eastern coastal areas. From the perspective of the source of funds for housing enterprises, the incremental funds in the second half of the year mainly come from advance receipts, deposits and personal mortgage loans, and its growth rate is expected to improve slightly. The special loan for "Baojiaolou" will continue to provide support for the housing completion section. However, the off-balance-sheet "leverage reduction" behavior of housing enterprises may continue with a high probability, mainly because the balance of Chinese offshore US debt and trust will continue to decrease. With regard to the judgment of construction funds for projects under construction, it is expected that the extension of loans related to large-scale high-quality housing enterprises will be supported by banks, but the possibility of further capital injection by most small and medium-sized developers is low. Based on comprehensive judgment, it is expected that there will still be some downside risks in real estate investment in the second half of the year, and the pressure in the third quarter is relatively high. It is expected to rebound slightly in the fourth quarter, and the accumulated real estate investment in the whole year may fall by 7% year-on-year.

Second, the industry risk analysis

1, the macroeconomic impact of the real estate market downturn.

As a pillar industry of the national economy, real estate connects the two major demands of consumption and investment, and plays an important role in economic growth. According to statistics, real estate economic activities account for nearly 30% of GDP, real estate-related loans account for nearly 40% of bank credit, real estate-related income accounts for 50% of local comprehensive financial resources, and real estate accounts for 60% of urban residents’ assets. According to the model of Zhixin Research Institute, every 1% drop in real estate development investment will drag down the GDP growth rate by about 0.1 percentage points. In the first quarter, the real estate market turned down in the second quarter after a short period of spring. In the first half of the year, the decline in real estate investment dragged down the growth rate of fixed assets investment by 1.6 percentage points and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods by 2.3 percentage points. It directly dragged down the GDP growth rate by about 0.4 percentage points, and indirectly dragged down GDP by about 0.5 percentage points; The negative impact of real estate-related activities on economic growth, especially on stimulating domestic demand, is remarkable. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of total retail sales of enterprises above designated size increased from 1.9% at the end of last year to 6.3%, but the growth rate of sales of products closely related to real estate was still lower than the average. For example, the sales growth rate of building and decoration materials, household appliances and audio-visual equipment, furniture, especially building products has not improved, but has further declined.

The drag of real estate investment on economic growth is expected to narrow slightly in the second half of the year, but it should not be taken lightly. Considering the financial pressure of housing enterprises, the low level of land acquisition and the pressure on the stock of Jian ‘an projects, it is difficult for real estate development investment to improve in the second half of the year. However, under the low cardinal utility in the same period last year, the year-on-year decline of real estate development investment will be narrowed from -7.9% in the first half of the year to -7%, and the drag of real estate on economic growth will also be slightly narrowed. It is estimated that investment in real estate development in the second half of the year may drag down investment in fixed assets by 1.6 percentage points, drag down social zero consumption by 2.1 percentage points, and drag down GDP growth by about 0.7 percentage points. According to the above calculation results, real estate investment may have a greater drag on GDP for the second consecutive year, which is really rare in the economic development of China in the past two decades. During this period, most real estate developers’ continuous reduction of balance sheets may imply the change of their main business objectives, that is, the change from actively expanding balance sheets to actively managing balance sheets. International experience shows that the formation of this trend may last for many years, in other words, the downward drag of real estate investment on the macro economy may continue further.

The land purchase fee may have a negative growth for three consecutive years, and the local government’s debt repayment pressure will increase. From January to June 2023, the land purchase fee was 2.1 trillion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year; The corresponding local state-owned land transfer income was 1.87 trillion, down 20.9% year-on-year, and the decline may be further expanded in the second half of the year. Due to the continuous decline of land transfer income, the income of local government funds has also declined simultaneously, resulting in a decline in the proportion of these two incomes in the overall local fiscal revenue. By the end of June, 2023, the proportion of land transfer in the narrow sense of national fiscal revenue has dropped to only 13%, which is the lowest level in the past decade. It seems that the decline of land transfer revenue has little impact on national fiscal revenue. However, the decline in the scale and growth rate of land transfer income is actually a huge test for local finance. By the end of June, 2023, the proportion of land transfer revenue to local narrow fiscal revenue dropped to about 20%, and the proportion of local government fund revenue was 87%. In the three years since the introduction of the "Three Red Lines", the local government’s land transfer income has been negative for two consecutive years, and the land transfer income is likely to remain at a low level in the second half of the year, which means that the corresponding government fund expenditure projects have insufficient investment support. At present, the repayment guarantee multiple of local government special debt has been reduced to 3.5 times, and the repayment pressure of local government debt will continue to increase, which may induce urban investment companies in economically underdeveloped areas to face greater repayment pressure in the future, and does not rule out the possibility of local debt repayment delay or debt default.

2. The debt repayment pressure of housing enterprises cannot be ignored.

It is estimated that the outstanding debt of housing enterprises in the second half of the year is 369.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 126.7 billion yuan compared with the first half of the year, which is still no small challenge compared with revenue. Among them, in the third quarter, housing enterprises will usher in the second small peak of debt repayment in the year, which is still a big test for housing enterprises; In the fourth quarter, the debt repayment pressure of housing enterprises may be eased. It should be pointed out that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate may lead to an increase of 5%-8% in the overall debt service cost of housing enterprises this year compared with last year.

Affected by delisting and debt default, there was a big funding gap in the special loan of "Baojiaolou" during the year. According to the public information of listed real estate enterprises that have been disclosed, in addition to the three companies that have been delisted in the first half of the year, there are currently six listed real estate enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and nine listed real estate enterprises in Hong Kong have suspended trading for more than 18 months before the end of the year, which may lead to the risk of triggering the exchange to issue a delisting warning letter. In view of the fact that many of the above-mentioned housing enterprises are well-known large and medium-sized housing enterprises, with a large number of projects and cities covered, and most of them have experienced problems such as debt default, project shutdown, significant decline in sales and tight cash flow. If the impact of delisting is superimposed, the difficulty of continuing to promote the task of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" may further increase, and it will have a certain impact on the smooth operation of the market. Based on financial calculations, including sales repayment ability, construction and installation costs, accounts payable and other indicators, it is estimated that the funding gap of "Baojiaolou" related to real estate enterprises that have been or are facing delisting risks may reach 400-500 billion yuan during the year.

3. Financial risks of housing enterprises need to be paid attention to.

At present, the interest rate of housing enterprises’ bank loans is higher than their return on investment. Due to factors such as epidemic disturbance, financing difficulties and periodicity, the return on investment of real estate enterprises has suddenly and rapidly declined since the fourth quarter of 2021, and it continues to be lower than the average loan interest rate of financial institutions. In history, only in the middle of 2011, there was a brief "cross" between the return on invested capital and the loan interest rate, but at that time, the return on invested capital of real estate enterprises was still at a relatively high level of more than 8%. According to statistics, the weighted return on investment capital (ROIC) of real estate enterprises listed on the mainland A-share market has rapidly dropped from 6%-8% in 2018-2020 to less than 4%, and it was 3% in the first quarter of 2023. Although the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans of financial institutions has gradually declined in the past three years, the overall loan interest rate has declined by about 100 basis points. By the end of the first quarter of 2023, the weighted average interest rate of loans will be 4.34%. That is to say, from the fourth quarter of 2021, for the relatively high-quality housing enterprises that can get loans from commercial banks, the on-balance-sheet credit cost begins to be higher than the return on investment. Perhaps in the short term, housing enterprises can fill the short-term liquidity gap through bank loans, but in the medium and long term, they will have to shrink credit to curb high costs. Therefore, the input cost is higher than the rate of return, which leads to a sharp contraction in the profits of housing enterprises in the past two years, and even some listed housing enterprises suffer losses, which is also an important reason for the non-performing loans of banking housing enterprises.

In recent years, the balance and non-performing rate of real estate loans of state-owned banks and large and medium-sized joint-stock commercial banks have been "Shuang Sheng". In order to actively respond to the policy call, commercial banks increased their credit support to housing enterprises in 2022, especially in the second half of the year. By the end of 2022, the credit balance of sample commercial banks to housing enterprises reached 6.4 trillion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year, and the balance growth rate increased by 4.2 percentage points compared with the end of 2021. However, the increase in credit has not effectively reduced the scale and growth rate of non-performing loans of housing enterprises. At the end of 2022, the total non-performing loans of sample commercial banks and housing enterprises reached 268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68%; The non-performing loan ratio of housing enterprises rose to 4.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the end of 2021 and an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the end of 2019 before the epidemic. The rising rate of non-performing loans of commercial banks’ housing enterprises is caused by many factors, but the problem of "sequelae" after three years of epidemic is more prominent. By the end of 2022, the proportion of non-performing loans of housing enterprises in the total non-performing loans of commercial banks has risen to about 20%, even exceeding the level of non-performing loans of the four major housing enterprises during the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States from 2007 to 2009, which must be paid enough attention to.

It is very difficult for commercial banks to continuously increase credit support for housing enterprises. Usually, commercial banks have two ways to deal with non-performing loans. First, if the operating conditions of housing enterprises change positively with the improvement of housing sales, commercial banks will seek to solve the problem of non-performing loans by extending the loan period and allowing borrowers to extend their existing loans appropriately. The other is inclined to shrink and reduce the loan business of housing enterprises to reduce the scale of corresponding concern loans, but this may lead more housing enterprises to face more risk of debt default. In view of the large regional differences in the current national real estate market, some housing loans focusing on the real estate market in third-and fourth-tier cities may still be risky in the future.

Third, policy recommendations to maintain the healthy operation of the real estate market

The "July 24" Politburo meeting further strengthened the wording of supporting policies in the real estate field, and proposed "adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in a timely manner to adapt to the new situation in which the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes". This is of great significance to the real estate market and China’s economic recovery, and the real estate policy needs to be adjusted and optimized according to the actual situation.

At present, the real estate market is gradually turning from a comprehensive downturn to a recovery, but we still can’t underestimate the resistance and hidden risks faced by the recovery of the real estate market. The repair of residents’ balance sheets needs more patience, and the release rhythm of individual housing loans may be longer than before. To fully understand the risks of housing enterprises, real estate developers are facing operational difficulties, the increase of non-performing loans, financing sustainability and other issues that deserve more attention, and the whole is in the process of reducing leverage in the medium and long term. It is expected that some eligible first-tier and key second-tier cities in the second half of the year may cancel or moderately cancel the restrictive housing purchase policy and try to implement "one district, one policy"; The supply side will further increase the supply-side support of housing finance and effectively resolve the financial risks of housing enterprises. In order to better release the market demand and prevent and control the risks of housing enterprises, nine policy suggestions are put forward.

The first suggestion is to guide commercial banks to further provide stable housing credit support for residents. In view of the demand for rigid first suites, eligible cities can appropriately reduce the down payment ratio of mortgage loans, including key second-tier cities and some first-tier cities; Commercial banks can reduce the mortgage interest rate by "adding points"; Increase the relaxation of local provident fund policies, and the maximum amount of provident fund loans can be increased by 50,000-100,000 yuan. We will ensure that 2.3-2.5 trillion yuan of personal mortgage loans will be added throughout the year, which will drive the proportion of personal mortgage loans in commercial banks to increase by 0.2-0.3 percentage points.

The second proposal is to focus on supporting the demand for rigid housing and ensuring the lower purchase cost of the first suite. It is suggested that for cities with relatively low property market, the implementation space of preferential interest rate policy for first-home mortgage should be reserved or the lower limit of interest rate for first-home mortgage should be phased out. In order to reduce the pressure on commercial banks, the central government’s discount loan policy can be introduced to give financial subsidies to the lowered interest rates, and the implementation period is temporarily one year. According to the leverage leverage relationship between personal mortgage loans and housing sales in the past three years, the amount of mortgage loans involved is about 40 billion, and the corresponding amount of housing sales is about 250 billion yuan.

The third proposal is to give preferential loans to buyers who just need and improve their needs in stages. In order to alleviate the initial purchase cost of property buyers, it is suggested to implement a preferential repayment plan for personal mortgage loans and provident fund loans, with a loan interest rate reduced by 20% and a preferential period of two to three years. After the preferential period, commercial banks can negotiate with lenders to allocate this part of the early preferential loans to the rest of the period.

The fourth recommendation is that first-and second-tier cities should moderately loosen the policy of restricting purchases and loans to release demand, expand sales and recover funds. At present, the supply and demand structure of the real estate market has undergone tremendous changes. The public and society generally do not have a strong expectation of rising house prices, and the possibility of a sharp rise in house prices is small. At this time, the conditions for loosening the policy of restricting purchases and loans have been met. It is suggested that eligible cities can apply the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans". The national housing demand is mainly distributed in the first-and second-tier cities and the eastern coastal areas. After more than three years of the epidemic, the per capita disposable income in first-tier cities and second-tier provincial capitals increased by 5.6% annually, and the compound growth rate of primary school students was above 3%, which were significantly higher than the national average. Thanks to the support of industrial structure, social public services and high-quality educational resources, it also provides a good foundation for first-tier and key second-tier cities to bring more rigid and improved housing demand. Historical experience at home and abroad shows that relaxing restrictive measures, effectively increasing housing supply, actively controlling land prices and reasonably guiding market expectations will not lead to excessive rise in housing prices.

The fifth recommendation is to maintain reasonable financing support for high-quality housing enterprises. It is suggested that commercial banks speed up the approval and issuance of development loans and appropriately increase the proportion of development loans in the loan balance to meet the reasonable capital needs of high-quality housing enterprises. Encourage and promote large and medium-sized commercial banks to increase the provision of intentional comprehensive credit lines, and effectively implement the intention agreement signed with housing enterprises. It is suggested that 1.75-2 trillion yuan of bank housing development loans should be added throughout the year, and the proportion of development loans in the total credit stock of the banking system should be gradually increased to 6%-6.5%.

The sixth proposal is to increase the implementation of the targeted easing plan for housing enterprises, and steadily and orderly increase the scale of special loans, M&A loans and refinancing for "Baojiaolou". For high-quality housing enterprises, especially the top-ranked housing enterprises in China and real estate projects with complete documents, we will increase the financial support of banks for the "second half" of real estate project construction, and increase special loans from policy banks, M&A loans and refinancing from commercial banks. During the year, about 700 billion yuan of loans related to "Baojiaolou" were invested, which improved the cash flow pressure of related real estate enterprises and gradually stabilized their business expectations. Encourage financial institutions to carry out M&A loans in a steady and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality housing enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of housing enterprises with difficulties. It is suggested that banks should participate in M&A loans of about 300 billion yuan throughout the year. It is suggested that commercial banks appropriately increase the refinancing plan for housing enterprises and reduce the financing cost of housing enterprises by using lower refinancing interest rates.

Recommendation 7 is to intensify efforts to create a relaxed non-bank financial environment for housing enterprises and creatively use the "second and third arrows of housing financial support policy". Intensify efforts to dispose of non-performing loans in real estate and innovate transitional financial instruments for housing enterprises. Direct financial support can be increased for housing enterprises with relatively good qualifications, including the use of bonds, trusts, REITs, credit default swaps (private CDS) or credit risk mitigation certificates (CRMW). It is suggested to increase the scale of credit bonds issued by real estate enterprises in the mainland to 600-700 billion yuan in 2023, and the credit bonds issued in the first half of the year were only 280.4 billion yuan, down 0.4% year-on-year. For housing enterprises with relatively difficult operation and excellent stock assets, we can consider rationally using local poverty relief funds or introducing asset management company AMC to alleviate the short-term cash flow and debt pressure of this housing distribution enterprise and reduce its liquidity risk and debt default risk. It is suggested to expand the scope of equity financing of housing-related enterprises and related industries (including construction industry or industries closely related to the upstream and downstream of real estate construction), do a good job in restarting equity financing of well-run housing enterprises, and effectively play the direct financing function of the capital market.

Recommendation 8 is to explore the establishment of a national real estate fund to support the disposal of non-performing assets in the industry in the medium and long term. Due to the huge stock assets of real estate developers, in the medium and long term, due to the continuous decline in the return on net assets, the behavior of real estate enterprises to reduce leverage may continue for a long time. At present, there are nearly 10 mainland listed real estate enterprises that have received the delisting process letter from the exchange, with a total long-term loan scale of over 60 billion yuan and a total debt scale of over 100 billion yuan, which is highly likely to become non-performing loans of commercial banks in the future. If we only rely on policy banks and state-owned banks to undertake their non-performing loans, it may only be short-term, so we need policies to start in the medium and long term to prepare for the systematic "burden reduction" of the real estate industry. In order to make forward-looking preparations, it is suggested to study the establishment of a national real estate fund, with an initial scale of about 300 billion yuan, which roughly covers the current scale of non-performing loans of commercial banks and housing enterprises, and continue to inject capital in the following years to systematically and medium-and long-term deal with real estate financial risks.

Recommendation 9 is to effectively increase land supply in first-tier and key second-tier cities in the second half of the year. In the first half of 2023, the land supply area of first-tier cities and second-tier cities decreased by 15% and 19% respectively year-on-year. Insufficient land supply was an important factor that caused insufficient land transactions in the first half of the year. Judging from the land auction in the first half of the year, some big cities sold land at the top price, and the relevant high-quality housing enterprises were very enthusiastic about taking land. However, in view of the limited number of centralized land supply, the total amount of land transactions was relatively small. In the second half of the year, there were two or more times of centralized land supply in many big cities. Local governments should increase the quantity of land supply, improve the quality of land, better meet the land reserve needs of housing enterprises, and increase the market supply in a timely and effective manner.

(The author is the chief economist and dean of the research institute of Zhixin Investment)

Editor in Charge: Fang Fengjiao Editor in Chief: Cheng Kai


After the 19th National Congress, "Take care of food, take care of money, and take care of golf" was opened.

On October 22nd, the website of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection quoted the discipline inspection and supervision team of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as saying: Recently, the discipline inspection and supervision team of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Supervision Commission conducted a disciplinary review and supervision investigation on Li Dong, former director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
After investigation, Li Dong, as a leading cadre in party member, was indifferent to political consciousness and lost his ideals and beliefs. After the 18th or 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, he still took care of food, money and golf. Violation of the spirit of the eight central regulations, accepting activities such as fitness, entertainment, banquets and tourism that may affect the fair execution of official duties, and accepting gifts that may affect the fair execution of official duties in violation of regulations, willing to be "hunted" and taking advantage of his position to seek benefits for others and accept property.
In this regard, the discipline inspection department commented: Li Dong seriously violated the party’s political discipline and integrity discipline, constituted a duty violation and was suspected of accepting bribes. He did not converge or stop after the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and he still did not want to change or stop after the 19 th National Congress. The nature is bad and the circumstances are serious, which should be dealt with seriously.
In this bulletin, there is a statement that is very eye-catching, that is, Li Dong’s poor performance of "taking care of food, collecting money and playing golf" after the 18th or 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Among them, eating and drinking with public funds or accepting bribes are all common problems of officials who have fallen off the horse, but the one of "playing golf" is full of personality and makes people "shine at the moment".
In fact, combing the recent anti-corruption news, it is not difficult to find that Li Dong is not the only fallen horse official who has been mentioned as having serious problems in "playing golf". On October 20th, the Supervision Committee of the Yunnan Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection mentioned that Wang Qing, the former vice president of Yunnan Jiantou Group, was "accepting golf cards". On October 18th, when the Discipline Inspection and Supervision Team of the State Supervision Commission of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Supervision Commission of the Anhui Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection informed the news that the former chairman of China Salt Industry Group, Qi Qingguo, was expelled from the Party and cancelled his retirement benefits, he also mentioned that he "illegally obtained, held and used golf cards". On October 14th, the Supervision Committee of the Guangdong Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection informed the news that Huang Xiangqing, former deputy secretary of the Party Committee and general manager of Guangdong Salt Industry Group, was double-opened. In the middle, there was also the expression of "turning a deaf ear to the spirit of the eight central regulations and playing golf illegally".
Ordinary netizens who don’t understand the relevant regulations of the central government may wonder: as a sport, playing golf seems a little expensive, but what is the essential difference from playing table tennis and badminton? In this regard, only on the basis of understanding the relevant provisions of the central government and deeply understanding the essence of the phenomenon of "golf corruption" can we get the answer to this question. In fact, as early as a few years ago, the society had an in-depth discussion on this phenomenon, and these recent cases have once again reminded the public that "golf corruption", a negative phenomenon that once had a bad influence, still deserves our vigilance and attention.
If an official just pays for himself and plays honestly, it seems that there is no problem. But in fact, there is a lot of room for corruption above the golf course. Accompany officials to play golf, intentionally lose, give officials golf membership cards, officials to play golf with public funds for reimbursement or businessmen to pay for it … Corruption related to golf is varied and has a lot of tricks. On the one hand, golf, which is becoming popular, has no original sin, but on the other hand, when all kinds of corruption are carried out under the cover of golf, the ambiguous relationship between officials and golf cannot be explained, which cannot but make people wary.
It should be recognized that there are many chaos in the blending of power and money behind golf, which is not the speculation of onlookers, but the fact. Therefore, Article 87 of the Regulations on Disciplinary Actions in the Communist Party of China (CPC) clearly stipulates the quantity and discipline of "obtaining, holding and actually using sports fitness cards, clubs and club membership cards, golf cards and other consumption cards in violation of relevant regulations". Guangdong and other provinces have also issued prohibition notices on illegal golf. In this case, playing golf illegally is to touch the red line of discipline.
In 2015, Liu Jincheng, executive deputy director of the Integrity Research Center of China University of Mining and Technology, pointed out in an interview with China Discipline Inspection and Supervision that in order to keep officials at a "safe distance" from golf, on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the transparency of the investigation, and adopt a "zero tolerance" attitude towards the official’s public consumption and the trading of power and money with illegal businessmen; On the other hand, it is necessary to improve and perfect the complaint and reporting mechanism, and mobilize a wider range of supervision forces, so that any violations of officials are "nowhere to hide."
In the final analysis, the control of golf corruption is not aimed at golf, but at stripping all kinds of abnormal interest demands that breed in golf and putting the power in the hands of officials into the cage of the system. Only by letting power "keep its place" and unscrupulous businessmen stop "thinking" can golf return to its true nature.
Source: website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, The Paper, People’s Daily Online, China Discipline Inspection and Supervision News, etc.

Employment discrimination gives birth to "physical examination gunner". Physical examination group earns millions a year (Figure)

Physical examination "gunman group" earns millions a year.

  At present, it is the peak of the physical examination for graduates. In exchange for a "spotless" physical examination report, some people began to look for "physical examination gunmen". Because of the loopholes in hospital management, the "gunmen" exploited the loopholes. Behind the survival of the physical examination "gunman", it once again reminds the society that the employment discrimination problem needs to be solved urgently.

  job seeker

  Who will take my physical examination and pay 500 yuan?

  "The university is graduating soon, and I finally found a job, but the employer asked me to issue a medical certificate. I am a hepatitis B virus carrier, but my liver function is normal and I am not contagious. I hope to find a good-hearted person to take my medical examination. I will provide 500 yuan nutrition fee and I will pay for the medical examination fee. " Recently, a post like this appeared on a forum.

  The reporter contacted the poster Ronaldinho according to the way this post was left. He claimed to be a fresh graduate of a university in Zhongshan and worked as an intern in a foreign company last December. "They were satisfied with my conditions, but after the physical examination, they turned me down because I was a hepatitis B virus carrier."

  Ronaldinho is very depressed about this. This month, when he went to another company for an interview, he decided to find someone similar to himself for a physical examination based on the experience taught by his predecessors. He said with emotion: "Now the employment pressure is so great that it is hard to find a job, and I have to worry about the physical examination. It is really sad to think about it."

  Ronaldinho told reporters that in the circle of hepatitis B virus carriers, it is an unspoken rule to find a "gunman" in the physical examination. He said: "Recently, it is the peak of graduation job hunting. Many people are looking for’ gunmen’, and some even call for the establishment of a medical examination alliance."

  "Gunners’ Regiment"

  Business across regions, nearly a thousand people a year for inspection.

  According to the data released by the Personnel Bureau of Zhongshan City, the number of college graduates in Zhongshan will exceed 20,000 this year, the highest in history. The employment situation is not optimistic. For hepatitis B virus carriers, their situation is even more embarrassing.

  With the increasing employment pressure and social discrimination, hepatitis B virus carriers have suffered more harm than hepatitis B virus itself. The reporter learned that there are still many units that have more or less "hepatitis B discrimination", which has given birth to things like "missing people for physical examination".

  It is no secret that the physical examination "gunner circle" in the Pearl River Delta has a high income. Ronaldinho also told reporters that a few years ago, the price of "gunner" for inspection only needed 250 yuan, and at most 500 yuan. Now, the price of finding a professional "gunner" has almost quadrupled, so he only considered looking for body double in the campus forum.

  "Hepatitis B discrimination" and good income make some gunmen see business opportunities, and they even unite to set up a "inspection company". The reporter learned from the investigation that the "business scope" of some companies has gone beyond a single city, and many "gunmen" claim to have businesses in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Zhuhai and Zhongshan. Some people even revealed that their operation team provides business for nearly a thousand people every year, with an annual income of over one million yuan.

  boast wildly

  No matter which hospital, it is guaranteed to pass the customs.

  Through Ronaldinho, the reporter contacted a physical examination "gunman". "We have professionals to do the inspection, and the charge is 2,000 yuan at a time." He said that for the physical examination of the agent, his team has been operating for a long time and everything is easy to solve.

  The "gunman" asked the reporter which hospital he would have a physical examination in, and said that he had accumulated contacts in many hospitals. "All hospitals in Zhongshan have to put photos and stamps and show their ID cards when they have a physical examination, but no matter which hospital, we can help pass the customs."

  "I help you to do the people’s hospital, top three hospitals, more authoritative. Pay a deposit in 500 yuan in advance and provide ID information. " Later, he sent a paragraph on the Internet: Zhongshan People’s Hospital, hand in your ID card during the physical examination, then register the information and send a physical examination form. There are photos, and the place where blood is drawn is one meter away from the registered place, which is suitable for "gunmen" to do all the projects.

  "Then how can I give you the money? How can you promise not to lie to me? " When the reporter asked for an interview, the "gunman" became wary. "You can transfer money or come to Dongguan People’s Hospital to meet me, but I won’t go to Zhongshan. We are not people who can be called out by a phone call."

  Hospital: impossible to prevent and have no right to punish.

  Because of the strict inspection, Zhongshan People’s Hospital and Pok Oi Hospital are called "restricted areas for substitute inspectors" by some "gunmen". The relevant person in charge of the two hospitals said that the substitute can be found almost every month, but the hospital can’t punish the parties.

  Feng Yanggen, chief of the physical examination center of Pok Oi Hospital, said, "Although the hospital is strictly controlled, it is impossible to completely eliminate this phenomenon. Hospitals are not law enforcement agencies and there is no way to punish them. "

  Voices of all parties

  Health department: looking for someone to check for you will cause endless trouble.

  Regarding the phenomenon of impersonation in physical examination, the relevant person in charge of the office of Zhongshan Municipal Health Bureau said that although there are many reasons for finding "gunmen" to replace physical examination, it is the employee’s irresponsibility to himself. Physical examination on behalf of the examination will not only be harmful to society, but also cause adverse consequences to the medical examiner, medical institutions and employers, and will also bring adverse consequences to the health, study and employment of the person being examined.

  Enterprise: You must know the health status of employees.

  The person in charge of the human resource management department of an IT enterprise told the reporter that from the perspective of employing people, the unit must understand the health status of employees. "If a person clearly needs to rest in poor health, but the company gives him a very important and stressful project without knowing it, does this help him or hurt him?"

  Expert opinion

  Employment discrimination gives birth to "physical examination gunner"

  In a forum called "physical examination bar", the reporter saw that many medical examiners who posted for help showed their helplessness. A netizen named "hou1979" left a message saying that he is a carrier of hepatitis B virus. This year, the unit requires everyone to have a physical examination, so he can only try his luck to find the "gunman".

  Experts from the Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention bluntly said that before the employment discrimination was effectively resolved, some people were really helpless to find a "gunman" for medical examination. On the one hand, they are asking major hospitals to strengthen the examination; on the other hand, they hope that the unit can face up to the results of the physical examination and consider it humanely for the professionals.

  Lawyer’s suggestion

  No longer check for hepatitis B in the physical examination.

  Ms. Huang Yizhi, who is in charge of assisting the parties in Beijing Yirenping Center, an anti-discrimination public welfare organization, said that in the world, carrying hepatitis B virus belongs to the personal privacy of workers, and employers have no right to conduct hepatitis B virus tests on workers, let alone discriminate against hepatitis B virus carriers and deprive them of equal employment rights.

  In this regard, some lawyers suggested that relevant laws and regulations should be introduced to standardize the contents of physical examination and cancel the hepatitis B virus examination at the time of on-the-job physical examination.

  Accelerate the pace of legislation to eliminate "hepatitis B discrimination"

  Although from a legal point of view, the physical examination of "gunmen" will lead to deception, cheating and other hazards, but most netizens will respond with sympathy and understanding to the abundant information of "looking for guns" on the Internet.

  Some netizens believe that at present, some employers do have violations and discrimination in the medical examination system, and the "hidden rules" of refusing to hire patients with diseases such as "Big Three Yang" are still in effect in some units. In real life, due to the unequal status of employers and employees, it is not easy for workers to safeguard their own rights and interests. Therefore, we should speed up the pace of legislation and eliminate "hepatitis B discrimination".

Editor: wangxin


Central Meteorological Observatory: There is still strong rainfall in Yunnan and other places, and there will be high temperature in parts of Huanghuai, North China.

  CCTV News:The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a weather bulletin. It is estimated that there will be moderate to heavy rain in the central and western Yunnan and southeastern Tibet from the night of the 14th to the 15th, with heavy rain in the local area and sleet or snow in high-altitude mountainous areas. Details are as follows:

  1. Moderate rain or heavy rain occurred in parts of Guangdong, Hainan and other places

  During the day, moderate rain or heavy rain occurred in parts of southern Yunnan, southwestern Guangdong and southeastern Hainan Island, and local rainstorms (50-71 mm) occurred in Wanning and Qiongzhong, Hainan.

  Second, the key weather forecast

  1. There is still strong rainfall in Yunnan and other places.

  From the night of 14th to 15th, there was moderate to heavy rain in central and western Yunnan and southeastern Tibet, with heavy rain in the local area and sleet or snow in high-altitude mountainous areas. In addition, from the 16th to the 17th, there were moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in southern Jianghuai, southern Jianghan, most of the south of the Yangtze River and northern South China. There are small to moderate rains in the south of Northeast China and eastern North China, accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.

  2. There will be high temperature in parts of Huanghuai in North China.

  From 15th to 17th, there was high temperature of 35℃ in southern Beijing, Tianjin, central and southern Hebei, central and western Henan, northern Shandong and other places, and the temperature in some parts of northern Shandong could reach above 37℃.

  Third, the specific forecast for the next three days

  From 20: 00 on May 14th to 20: 00 on May 15th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of southeastern Tibet, central and western Yunnan, and southwestern Sichuan. Among them, there are heavy rains (50-70 mm) in parts of southeastern Tibet and western Yunnan. There are 4 ~ 6 winds in parts of northeastern Inner Mongolia and Hexi in Gansu (see Figure 1).

Figure 1 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (20: 00 May 14-20: 00 May 15)

  From 20: 00 on May 15th to 20: 00 on May 16th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of eastern Jianghan, northern Jiangnan, southeastern Southwest and southern Tibet, among which there are heavy rains (50-70 mm) in parts of eastern and southern Hubei and northern Hunan. There are 4 ~ 5 winds in parts of southeastern and northwestern Inner Mongolia, southwestern Heilongjiang, northern Zhejiang and southeastern Yunnan (see Figure 2).

Figure 2 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (20: 00 May 15-20: 00 May 16)

  From 20: 00 on May 16th to 20: 00 on May 17th,There are moderate to heavy rains in the eastern and western parts of Northeast China, the eastern and western parts of Jianghuai, the northern and central parts of Jiangnan and southern Tibet, among which there are heavy rains (50-60 mm) in parts of southern Jiangsu, Shanghai and northern Zhejiang (see Figure 3).

Figure 3 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (20: 00 May 16-20: 00 May 17)

  Fourth, the impact and concern

  1. Pay attention to the strong precipitation in western Yunnan and southeastern Tibet on the 15th to prevent secondary disasters caused by local heavy precipitation;

  2. Pay attention to the high temperature weather in North China, Huanghuai and other places from 15 to 17;

  3.16-17 rainfall process and its influence in Jiangnan and South China;

  4. Pay attention to the development trend of drought in Yunnan;

  5. Spring ploughing and spring sowing meteorological service.