BEIJING, April 23 (Guo Weiwei) On the 23rd local time, the first round of voting in the French general election will be held. Polls show that the candidates are competing for hegemony among the top four, and the extreme right-wing and extreme left-wing candidates who advocate leaving the European Union are "coming to the forefront" and impacting France’s European policy. After the Brexit referendum, will the "black swan" fly again in the French general election?
Europe is watching this election campaign in France with great anxiety. EU officials even worry that "this is the end of Europe as we know it".
[On the eve of the election, the outcome of the "top four hegemony" is unpredictable]
Data Map: French presidential candidate Macron. (Source: Reuters)
There are 11 candidates competing in this year’s French general election. At present, the most concerned people are Emmanuel Macron, a centrist independent candidate who is friendly to Europe, and Marina Le Pen, the leader of the National Front, a far-right party that advocates Brexit.
According to the results of several polls released before the first round of voting, Macron’s support rate is in the first place for the time being, but his lead over Le Pen, who ranks second, is only 2 percentage points at most.
However, Fran? ois Fillon, the Republican presidential candidate, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, the candidate of the extreme left-wing "Unyielding France" movement, competed fiercely for three or four places, and at the same time posed a full threat to the two "leaders".
After the current French President Hollande decided not to seek re-election, Benoit Amon, the candidate launched by Hollande’s Socialist Party, was also considered to have a low chance of winning. Fillon of the Republican Party suffered a heavy loss because of the "empty reimbursement door". According to the analysis, after the Socialist Party and the Republican Party have been in power for decades, France may welcome candidates outside these two major political parties to win for the first time.
According to the rules of the French general election, the candidate with more than 50% of the votes in the first round of voting will be directly elected president, otherwise, the two candidates with the highest votes will enter the second round of voting, and the one with the most votes will win. According to French media, the gap between the four leading candidates is so small that polling agencies dare not rashly predict which two are most likely to enter the second round.
[Scandals are frequent, and candidates "have their own troubles"]
French presidential candidate Le Pen. (Source: Reuters)
Since the beginning of 2017, this year’s French election has been constantly shrouded in the shadow of scandals. Emotional language and attacks against opponents are full of election "challenges", and the competition for policy propositions has taken a back seat.
At the beginning of the campaign, the Republican candidate Fillon was one of the most popular candidates. However, France’s "Ya Ming Bao" revealed in January that Fei Yong was suspected of falsely holding the position of assistant to a member of parliament for his wife and children in order to receive a high salary. The "empty door" has seriously lowered Fillon’s public opinion support rate, and he has also been put on file for review. Fillon accused that some people discredited themselves for political purposes, but it did not help to save the support rate.
On the other hand, Marina Le Pen of the far right is also facing trouble. She was suspected of pretending to be an assistant to a member of the European Parliament, allowing two assistants to "impersonate" 340,000 euros. In addition, she was accused of spreading bloody images of extremist organizations executing people on social networks, and the European Parliament cancelled her criminal immunity in the investigation of the case.
Fei Yong was troubled by the "empty door" and his image was seriously damaged; Le Pen’s ideas are distinct and controversial at the same time. Even if he enters the second round of voting, he may be jointly blocked by supporters of other candidates. Macron, who is "anti-institutional", is 39 years old, and only five years of political experience is his disadvantage … …
[Terrorist attacks are frequent, adding a shadow to the Xiang Street gun case]
A shooting incident occurred on the Champs Elysé es Avenue, a famous commercial street in Paris, France, on the evening of April 20, causing one death and two injuries to the police, and the gunman was also shot and killed by the police.
In this year’s French general election, the most concerned topics are economy and security. Just three days before the voters walked into the polling station, the most prosperous Champs Elysé es in Paris, France was attacked, resulting in one death and two injuries to the police, and the attacker was killed. The "Islamic State" announced responsibility for the attack.
Since two serious terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015, France has been shrouded in serious terrorist threats. So far, France is still in a state of emergency. Therefore, how to deal with terrorism and protect French citizens has become one of the core topics in this French election.
French media said that the terrorist shooting on the Champs Elysé es made the French sad and angry, and the French presidential election "has never been shrouded in the shadow of terror as it is today".
After the attack, Le Pen said: "Our security personnel have once again become targets, and my feelings are with them."
Macron said that the first mission as president is to protect the French people. Fillon expressed condolences to the security personnel who died, while Melenchon said on social networking sites that terrorist attacks will never escape punishment. A number of candidates announced the cancellation of the election campaign scheduled for the 21st.
Polls show that millions of voters in France have not yet decided who to vote for or whether to participate in the first round of voting. In this case, I am afraid that the tangled situation of the French election has added another layer of variables.
[Who will win? Euroscepticism leads the EU to worry]
Outside France, the European Union is watching this election with anxiety. European Commissioner Moskovski even worried that "this is the end of Europe as we know it".
Populist politicians in other European countries have shown different performances recently: Dutch voters rejected Wilders and supported the status quo; Italy vetoed the establishment; Austria rejected a far-right presidential candidate.
Among the four leaders in the French general election, Le Pen and Melenchon are both famous for their "irreconcilable" attitude towards the EU. If the two men enter the "final" on May 7, French voters will have to choose between two extremes. No matter who wins, it may impact the euro, European stocks and European debt markets, and even the European pattern may be reshuffled.
Once France withdraws from the EU, the impact may be even greater than that of Brexit. "Deutsche Welle" said that if France withdraws, this form of EU will die so far.
The outlook may not be so pessimistic. The current poll figures show that Macron and Le Pen are still more likely to enter the second round. If it is this match, the analysis generally believes that other candidates will join hands to "build a wall" to stop Le Pen, making it difficult for her to cross the second round.
However, even if Le Pen and Melenchon fail to win the French election, if they get as much as 40% of the support rate as the opinion polls show, it will undoubtedly be a wake-up call for Brussels. The message of their popularity is clear and unambiguous: the EU and the euro zone must change. (End)
