On September 21st, Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China attended the general debate of the 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly with the theme of "Sustainable Development Goals: Working Together to Transform Our World" and delivered an important speech entitled "Working Together to Build a Peaceful, Stable and Sustainable World". Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Tao photo
Postdoctoral fellow of Zhu Ning and researcher of Peking University National Governance Innovation Center.
After arriving in the "Maple Leaf Country", Li Keqiang’s speech in the general debate of the UN General Assembly still echoed in the UN General Assembly Hall: "Support the United Nations and its Security Council to play a leading role in international affairs, and support the continuous reform and improvement of global governance mechanisms to adapt to the new changes in the international political and economic structure." This has always been advocated by the China government, expressing its attitude towards the post-war international order and international relations including the United Nations, and also embedding China’s peaceful development strategy.
In the more than 300 years since the decline of modern international relations, the Westphalia system, the Vienna system, the Versailles-Washington system and the Yalta system have disappeared in the historical turbulence in less than 70 years on average. The reform of the international system is often marked by the decline and fall of major hegemonic countries and the transfer of power. Henry Kissinger said in Grand Diplomacy: "It seems that according to some natural law, there will always be a powerful country with strength, will, wisdom and moral motivation in every century to shape the whole international system according to its values."
When China’s economic scale leapt to the second place in the world, western research institutions said that China’s total economic output had surpassed that of the United States according to purchasing power parity, so western public opinion imagined a gorgeous picture of China surpassing the United States, and even there was a discussion on G2 model (global governance between China and the United States) in western academic and political circles. Of course, it is more about the global power transfer and the argument that China will inevitably have a conflict with the hegemonic country, the United States. G. Ellison published a famous article entitled "Thucydides Trap Emerged in the Pacific" in the Financial Times, bluntly saying that China is a country that challenges the world order. According to the attitudes and policies towards the existing international order, western international relations theory divides the countries in the world into two categories: one is the "challenger" of the existing international order. One is the "status quo maintainer". This school of realism, rooted in western historical experience, believes that "emerging forces" in the international system will inevitably require changing and breaking the status quo; Those big countries that dominate the existing order strongly demand to maintain the "status quo" and maintain the so-called "leadership" status. According to the phenomenon of the rise and fall of great powers perceived by historians, George Mo Deer proposed the long-period theory: there is a hegemonic country and many emerging countries in each cycle. He asserted that emerging countries will challenge to change the existing international political and economic system. According to the above theory,The mainstream western public opinion arbitrarily concludes that China is a "challenger" country: "The rise of China" will require breaking the existing order that the United States is trying to maintain. Barry buzan, the leader of the English school, put forward in a study: China’s "peaceful rise" is a popular theory, but will she exert influence on the international community after her rise?
The current international system with the United Nations at the core and the norms of international relations based on the Charter of the United Nations have maintained peace for the world for more than 70 years and are still effective. As a permanent member of the United Nations, China is the builder, beneficiary and defender of the post-war international order. China abides by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, undertakes the responsibility of being a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and maintains world peace. For example, on the Iranian nuclear issue, the DPRK nuclear issue and other issues, China has also carried out 14 peacekeeping operations in Africa, and is currently the country with the largest number of peacekeeping troops among the permanent members of the UN Security Council. China has also fully demonstrated its responsibility as a responsible big country in areas where global issues are prominent, such as counter-terrorism, economy, finance, climate and environment.
China is also deeply involved in the international system. For example, in the economic field, there are international finance, international trade, G-20, BRICS cooperation, international assistance, and cooperation in East Asia; in the political security field, there are climate change, arms control, counter-terrorism, UN peacekeeping, ASEAN Regional Forum; and in the social and cultural field, there are World Health Organization, UNESCO, international human rights mechanism and ASEM mechanism. The depth and breadth of China’s participation in the international system, as well as its ways and contributions, reflect the nature of the relationship between China and the current international system, that is, China participates cooperatively, respecting the international system and participating in multilateral rules while adhering to independent peaceful diplomacy. China is a responsible and important member of the international community and a part of the community of human destiny.
Is it a challenger? Or a defender of order? For China’s interests, it is undoubtedly the most advantageous to do the latter. China has made great achievements since the reform and opening up, thanks to the peaceful external environment and the rapid development of global economy. This determines that China is the true defender and builder of post-war order. The strategic interests of a country are based on its strategic identity, which determines its interests and interests determine its behavior. Such a strategic identity also determines the content of China’s national interests and the direction of its strategic behavior, and at the same time determines that China and the leading powers adopt a cooperative strategy rather than a competitive strategy. Why does mainstream western public opinion still hype China as a challenger to the international order? In fact, this is an upgraded version of China threat theory, trying to find a new adversary for the United States after the Cold War, and to justify its global hegemony. As a western scholar said: Some people in the United States are eager to see China rise, because then he can find his enemies.
After the demise of the Soviet Union and the end of the bipolar pattern, the international pattern of one superpower and many powers is evolving towards a multipolar world. Compared with the unipolar pattern, the multipolar pattern under the premise of democratization of international relations is in line with China’s national interests. According to structural realists, the international system structure reflects the distribution of national material power, and the so-called "pole" refers to a big country. From this theoretical perspective, if a country’s economy develops to a certain extent, it will inevitably transform its economic strength into military capability and then threaten the interests of the existing major hegemony. However, this purely materialistic theoretical perspective is flawed, so it is criticized and deconstructed by critical theory and social constructivism. Because the meaning of power distribution is largely constructed by the distribution of interests, and the content of interests is constructed by ideas. That is to say, the reason why power and interests have the function they actually have is because the concept of creating power and interests has played a role. From the perspective of historical logic, a country’s strategy of checks and balances is based on the country that poses the greatest threat to itself, not necessarily the most powerful country. This is Stephen Walter’s "threat balance" principle. Therefore, there is no causal relationship between the conclusion that a country’s economic volume is a threat, and it cannot withstand the test of history and reality. No matter for East Asia or the whole world, China’s national strength growth and international threats are not equal. Economic strength is one thing, military capability is another, because it is separated by "Willingness ",— — Only when a country has this "will" can economic strength become military strength. As a country with a population of more than 1.3 billion, the development gap between the east and the west and between urban and rural areas in China is very large, and there is still a long way to go in the process of modernization. Even though military spending is on the rise, it accounts for only 1.4% of GDP, far lower than the 3.2% in the United States. 2.5% in the UK. According to internationally recognized standards, the proportion of military expenditure is 2%-4%, which is a relatively safe range. Since the 16th century, the history of the rise and fall of Spain, the Netherlands, France, Britain, the Soviet Union and other great powers shows that the important reason for the failure of great powers is to pursue unlimited strategic goals with limited strategic resources. Even if a country has more resources, it will inevitably be exhausted. This can be called the "paul kennedy puzzle" in the field of history. Economy and security cannot be neglected, and China will find a golden balance between economic development and safeguarding national security.
In the new century, international politics has undergone profound changes, especially since the international financial crisis in 2008, with the rapid rise of emerging market countries and the relative decline of the West, the international pattern has undergone structural changes. Because the distribution of power between countries constitutes the basic form and power to control the international system, its change will inevitably bring about the change of the system composed of countries, which will lead to the global transfer of power. Based on this, some scholars put forward the concepts of "two superpowers and many strengths", which reflect the contrast between China and the United States, and the hypothesis of the change of power between the East and the West. Historically, superpowers will eventually disappear in the international political changes with the increasing role of regional countries and non-governmental organizations, and the "pole" will also disappear and become a historical phenomenon. A world without promise will emerge.
Such an era also raises a big question for China: How to deal with, participate in and contribute to the future international order? In his speech at the general debate of the UN General Assembly, Li Keqiang said that "China supports the reform and improvement of the global governance mechanism". Is to answer this question. How to participate in global governance in the "China way"? After the end of the cold war, there has been a major change in international politics, that is, the nature of challenges and threats is different from before. In the past, it was a territorial threat from country to country. Now this traditional threat still exists, but another threat, such as transnational threat and global threat, has emerged in large numbers. With the rapid growth of economy and the rapid promotion of comprehensive national strength, China has greatly enhanced its influence on the international political order. China’s global governance plan is rooted in the concern for the common destiny of mankind, opposing unilateralism and hegemonism, opposing "peace under the rule of the United States" and advocating strengthening the role of the United Nations, solving common problems of all countries through international cooperation, and striving to establish a new international political and economic order. Global governance itself is a process of consultation, participation and identity remodeling. To truly change the chaos of global governance, we need to take a pluralistic world outlook, a partnership thinking mode and participate in the practical activities of the governance process, thus building a real global society.
To cope with the above global challenges and threats, we need global governance under the consultation of big powers and consultative governance between big powers and emerging countries. This kind of "cooperative governance" will pave the way for peace in the new global order. In this sense, the rise of emerging powers has created opportunities and brought vitality to the entire international system, enabling cooperation between countries to be built on a broader platform. The participation of emerging powers, including China, in global governance will inevitably play a constructive role in this governance process, and, like what RCEP and G20 have done, they will deeply participate in the formulation of international rules and systems dominated and monopolized by western countries for a long time, thus showing the vibrant side of global pluralistic civilization.
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