Recently, two local conferences have been held one after another. The government work reports of several cities have deployed the housing or real estate market, and most of them mentioned supporting housing to improve consumption. The fundamentals of the property market are changing.
At the same time, the transaction volume of the property market rose sharply in February. This has also changed people’s expectations of the real estate market situation — — Will the property market heat up rapidly, and the volume and price will rise together?
Intensive promotion of housing consumption in various places
On February 28th, the report on the work of Chengdu Municipal Government was released, proposing to adhere to the principle of "housing without speculation", support the rigid and improved housing needs of new citizens, young people and families with many children, further optimize the financial service policy, support the reasonable financing needs of the industry, and promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model.
On February 27th, at the Chengdu Economic Operation Dispatching Meeting in January-February, 2023, Wang Fengchao, Mayor of Chengdu, stressed the need to comprehensively grasp the steady growth of key areas, and the second aspect was to do a good job in boosting consumption, including "better releasing the rigid and improved housing demand".
Not only in Chengdu, but also in local government work reports, the expressions about housing or real estate market can be roughly divided into two categories: one is to support the rigid and improved housing needs of new citizens and young people, and the other is to support or expand housing consumption.
Among them, some cities put forward more detailed policies and measures for the real estate market in government work reports, and clearly put forward the optimization and adjustment of existing policies.
The work report of Zhengzhou Municipal Government clearly puts forward that 12 policies and measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Zhengzhou City should be implemented, the restricted areas should be appropriately adjusted, commercial housing for sale should be supported by group purchase, the residents of new citizens’ metropolitan area should be treated equally in purchasing houses, rent and purchase should be promoted simultaneously, the credit burden of purchasing houses should be reduced, and measures such as recognizing houses and refusing loans should be implemented, and activities such as 20% discount for talents and new citizens should be carried out to solve the housing problems of young talents, new citizens and other groups, and promote housing consumption steadily.
The work report of Xi ‘an Municipal Government devoted a section to "promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market". It is required to adhere to the orientation of "housing without speculation", further optimize the housing policy, support rigid and improved housing demand, standardize the development of long-term rental market, and promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model. Continue to solve the problem of "difficulty in obtaining a permit" for housing. Resolutely fight the tough battle of "guaranteeing the delivery of the building" and ensure that more than 80% of the postponed projects will be delivered during the year. We will carry out a three-year campaign to solve the problem of "relocation difficulties" and vigorously promote the construction of resettlement buildings and resettlement work. Newly build 20,000 sets (rooms) of affordable rental housing to solve the housing problems of new citizens and young people.
Changchun has deployed the real estate market from two directions: promoting the healthy development of pillar industries and focusing on stimulating consumer demand, some of which are more powerful than other cities.
The work report of Changchun Municipal Government proposes to promote the healthy development of key pillar industries. Among them, vigorously develop the real estate industry, relieve the difficulties of high-quality housing enterprises, and meet reasonable financing needs. Strive for national special loans to speed up the pilot project of commercial housing destocking, and buy commercial housing by the government for shantytown renovation and relocation, affordable housing and rental housing.
In addition, Changchun will focus on stimulating consumer demand. We introduced new policies to promote real estate, continued to implement policies such as farmers entering cities, subsidies for talents to buy houses, and "transferring business to public", built real estate trading centers, and continued to hold housing fairs. The sales area of commercial housing exceeded 5.5 million square meters.
Yan Yuejin, research director of Yiju Research Institute, told CBN that the references to housing consumption are frequent in various places, which also reflects the government’s emphasis on housing demand and housing consumption. The housing purchase policy may be further relaxed, but this looseness cannot be understood as intensive introduction of policies. There are already many existing policies, and we should focus on digesting existing policies.
Liu Lu, a professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, told CBN that the "first suite" home purchase has always been the key object of policy support. For the purchase of more than three houses, previous property market regulation policies are basically more restrictive. The second suite between the two clearly shows the attitude of "reasonable support", which is actually the embodiment of the people’s consumption upgrade in the housing field and the objective demand for improving the quality of living.
In fact, since last year, the property market regulation policies in various cities have been continuously loosened.
According to the statistics of the Central Finger Research Institute, since 2023, nearly 90 provinces and cities (counties) have optimized and adjusted their real estate policies, and introduced control measures over 100 times. According to preliminary statistics, 49 policies have been issued in 46 provinces, cities and counties in February, and the market in many places has warmed up, and the wait-and-see mood of hot cities has improved. Many places have implemented the dynamic regulation mechanism of the first home loan interest rate policy, and more than 30 cities have reduced the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate to below 4%.
Will the property market heat up rapidly?
Under the influence of a series of policies, the real estate market situation is changing, and "Xiaoyangchun" seems to be coming.
According to the data of the Central Finger Research Institute, the transaction volume of the property market in February increased by 31.9% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed. First-tier cities increased by 5.0% month-on-month, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased significantly month-on-month, and Shanghai both decreased month-on-month. Second-and third-tier cities as a whole rose by more than 40% month-on-month, while only Wenzhou and Fuzhou declined month-on-month, among which Jinan increased significantly, up 108.16% month-on-month. The total inventory decreased slightly, with a larger decline in Shenzhen, with a decrease of 4.89% from the previous month.
However, Liu Lu said that after the Spring Festival this year, the property market in many places across the country showed obvious signs of recovery, but the division was still large.
Liu Lu said that in first-tier cities and second-tier cities represented by Chengdu, there was little or no downward adjustment in the local property market in the early stage. At present, it is mainly reflected in the rapid expansion of the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in the property market. In terms of price, the new house is reflected in the reduction of concessions; Second-hand housing is reflected in the owner’s reluctance to sell from wait and see, and the price has risen to a certain extent. This kind of city has a good economic fundamentals and a large net inflow of population, so the upward development trend of the property market can last for a long time.
However, Liu Lu said that in many other third-and fourth-tier cities and some second-tier cities, the downward adjustment of the property market in the early stage was more obvious. This year’s Spring Festival was superimposed by factors such as returning home and favorable policies, and the local property market showed a certain recovery, but its sustainability was worse than that of the previous cities.
Yan Yuejin also said that the income situation of ordinary people is still under pressure. The data changes in January and February are relatively large. Even if the transaction volume rises sharply, it is not easy to judge that it will heat up rapidly, and the possibility of slow heating is still relatively large. The overall trend of follow-up is optimistic, but it is necessary to guard against speculation in the middle.
Just as the market situation changed slightly, news of some policy changes began to spread. For example, in January this year, the first home loan interest rate of many local banks in Zhengzhou was lowered from 4.1% to 3.8%, but recently it was reported that the first home loan interest rate in Zhengzhou will be raised to 4.3%. Although this news has not been confirmed, it has attracted the attention of the market.
On February 28th, the Office of the Leading Group for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Yiwu issued a notice to implement eight "new policies" for real estate from now on. From April 1st, 2023, Yiwu will cancel the policy of encouraging "group buying" to buy a house, that is, cancel last year’s "on the basis of the floating record price, ‘ Group purchase ’ 10 or more sets of commercial housing can fall below 2%; Right ‘ Group purchase ’ 20 sets or more can fall below 3%; Right ‘ Group purchase ’ With the preferential policy of 50 sets and above, the market preference will gradually return to a stable state.
Yan Yuejin believes that this statement shows that Yiwu has fine-tuned some preferential housing purchase policies. The policy of Yiwu this time fully shows that some subdivided purchase policies have changed, which is also the first policy statement in China that explicitly cancels preferential treatment this year, which is of signal significance.
Yan Yuejin believes that the withdrawal of some preferential policies should be viewed objectively. To some extent, the general direction and framework of local policies are still relaxed, but there may be fine-tuning in some areas. All localities should do a good job from the perspective of market conditions and the rights and interests of buyers, and prevent the troubles caused by loose and tight policies to buyers. At the same time, all localities are also required to publicize the existing easing policies and actively encourage the release of reasonable housing consumption demand.
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