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The turning point of Tencent Holdings’ performance has arrived, and the weak recovery trend in the third quarter will continue in the fourth quarter.2023Under the influence of low base, it will usher in a recovery growth in 2008, and the growth rate of profit end is obviously higher than that of revenue end.
Special author of this magazine Yuan Jie/writing
In just two months, Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) The stock price has rebounded from the bottom.80%. Is this wave of rise a short-term rebound or a complete reversal? How to treat Tencent?2023Year?
Previously, at2022year11After Tencent released the third quarterly report in June, I clearly expressed the view that the turning point of Tencent’s operation had arrived. At present, in the past two months, with the substantial optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies,2022yeartwelveThe influence of factors such as the unexpected version number of the monthly game and the accelerated commercialization of the video number confirms my judgment that the turning point of Tencent’s operation has arrived. Of course, we should not be overly optimistic. At present, the COVID-19 pandemic is not completely over, the potential energy of economic growth is far from being restored, and the peripheral American economy also has a certain degree of recession risk. Therefore,20232008 will be a year of moderate recovery for Tencent, and it will take time to re-enter the fast lane of growth.
QQThe metauniverse is worth looking forward to.
Tencent’s core underlying social communication moat is still stable, according to2022According to the financial report in the third quarter of 2008, the latest monthly users of WeChat increased year-on-year.3%, the first breakthrough.13Billion mark, stand out from the crowd.QQYuehuo5.7Billion, a slight increase year on year.0.1%, regain growth.
The author has been thinking about a question recently. How important is WeChat to Chinese people? Is it really indispensable?
2022yeartwelveIn the middle and late month, the epidemic situation reached its peak in many places across the country, and it was hard to find a medicine. In the great panic, Tencent only spent.threeDay time was launched.“COVID-19 protective drugs public welfare mutual assistance"Small program. According to media reports, millions of people have visited this small program, and users have released more than.100Ten thousand pieces of help and help information. A game involving millions of people“Mutual assistance relay"Let people once again feel the warmth between people.
Tencent’s timely and temperature-sensitive actions have won unanimous praise from the outside world. Some users bluntly said that only Tencent can do this. This gave me a more intuitive understanding of Tencent’s vision of goodness, and also made me realize that WeChat has really become a way of life for Chinese people. Users are very sticky and it is difficult for competitors to break through from the outside.
Another pillar of Tencent’s socialization,QQMonthly users since2016After being surpassed by WeChat in, it has been falling continuously.fiveIn, it seems that the downward trend is inevitable. However, the data shows that,QQexist2022The latest monthly number of people living in the third quarter of 2008 is5.74Billion, a slight increase year on year.0.9%.2022Beginning in 2008,QQContinuous number of people living in a monththreePositive growth resumed last quarter.
Actually, as early as2021yearfourMonth, faceQQTencent platform and content business group (PCGA new round of organizational structure and personnel adjustment has been carried out internally. Yao Xiaoguang, vice president of Tencent and president of Tianmei Studio Group, took overPCGHead of social platform business, supervisorQQBusiness development. This is also the first time that Tencent has appointed a business leader across business groups. Tencent’ s statement is that“I hope to apply the computer graphics technology and ability accumulated in the game field to the imagination space in the social and video fields.". Soon in2021yearsevenIn June, Tencent heard that Yao Xiaoguang personally led the team.PCGDevelop social games with Tianmei Studio.AppExplore the news of the meta-universe synchronously from the social and game directions.
It should be said that this personnel adjustment of Tencent is still very effective.2022The first quarterly report of 2001 mentioned superQQShow and short video sharing is more convenient. This is mainly becauseQQIntroduced a function similar to video number called"microcosm", A collection of entertainment videos such as secondary animation, games and music that young people like. The secondary photo generator that suddenly became popular on overseas social platforms some time ago is also coming fromQQTeam’s products“Me in another dimension".
the following2022In the mid-year report, the official focus is on super.QQShow. The third quarterly report also talked aboutGucciCommercial cooperation with KFC. Explain superQQXiuxiu continues to make some progress, bringing back some young users (the monthly activity increased in the third quarter compared with the first quarter)1000Ten thousand people), yesQQThe main reason for the increase of monthly living population. superQQXiu is the best in the market with high completion, playability and smooth experience.“metaverse"One of the embryonic products. With the superQQShow andQQThe combination of Xiaowo, Tencent already has a large number of loyal young users, and it is also popular among young female users such as Xiaohongshu. Currently "Super"QQXiu is still in the testing experience stage. With the continuous enrichment of product functions and contents,2023The year is still worth looking forward to, after all, it is self-embedded.fourThe development engine, the upper limit of the product is still very high, and it has the potential to become an explosive product.
Game version number quality and quantity double harvest
twelvemoon28Day, at2022Before the end of the yearthreeDay, the State Press and Publication Administration issued2022yeartwelveMonthly online game approval information, in total84A domestic game,45An imported game was approved.
This version number review can be seen as an important measure for the country to encourage the development of the Internet industry, which is the real game industry.“untie (a person)"The signal. First of all, the game that has been released this time can be described as“Both rain and dew are stained."Not only big companies like Tencent and Netease, but also other small and medium-sized studios have tried heavy games, and the types of games that have passed the trial are also covered.MOBA, shooting and love women version number, breaking the rumor that some types of games can’t pass the trial. Secondly, this time there is45An imported game was approved. The last time the import tour passed the trial, it dates back to2021yearsixmoon28Day. And the current edition number contains a variety of United States and South Korea.IP, explain the Korean restrictions.“icebreaking"New progress has been made in cultural exchanges between China and the United States. Therefore, it is of great significance to restart the approval of imported games.
Tencent is the biggest winner this time, with self-research and agency.eight This game won the version number, and the overall version number and quality exceeded expectations. However, it still takes several months to a year from the release of the version number to the actual performance of the game. Especially considering that both domestic and overseas game markets are experiencing.“Epidemic dividend"The disappearance of the macro-economic downturn and the lack of growth, the overall game market.20232008 is still in the process of searching for the bottom. Judging from the domestic game market, gamma data "2022year11Monthly Game Industry Report shows that,2022year11In June, the actual sales revenue of China game market.191.68100 million yuan, down from the previous month3.04%, year-on-year decline19.23%. The foreign game market is also having a hard time, according toSensor TowerStatistics,2022year11In June, global mobile game players were atApp
StoreandGoogle PlayPay more than61Billion dollars, down from the same period last year.11.3%. There are no signs of stabilization yet.
StoreandGoogle PlayPay more than61Billion dollars, down from the same period last year.11.3%. There are no signs of stabilization yet.
For Tencent, its resilience is slightly better than that of the game market, and the domestic the glory of the king and peace elites performed steadily, with a slight decline; In overseas gamesValorant》《Apex Heroes and the Phantom Tower, which was released by the agency, all performed well. And in South KoreaShift Up R&D and Tencent’s overseas brand promotionLevel Infinite The goddess of victory:NIKKE"is the biggest surprise. according toSensor Tower Data, Goddess of Victory:NIKKE"The revenue in the first month of the launch exceededoneBillion dollars, is expected to help.2022Tencent’s overseas game revenue exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter of 2008. At present, Tencent has sufficient game reserves, among whichtwentyThe remaining games have been numbered, and there are many works with explosive potential.
Tencent games may still be in the process of finding the bottom of weakness, if it is fast.2023In the second quarter of 2008, if it is slow.2023The second half of 2008 will usher in an upward turning point in performance.
Video number, the strategic general attack is about to start.
At Tencent’s internal staff meeting last month, Ma Huateng said,“The most eye-catching business of WeChat business group is video number, which is basically the hope of the whole audience (the whole company)."At the same time, he said,“In the past three years, short video has had a great impact on the whole Internet on a global scale, and all platforms and enterprises have to pay attention to this piece. It will consume the time of many long videos, games and other products, which is an objective development law. This also forced our other businesses to make adjustments. "
What Ma Huateng said is true. According to statistics, from2017year—2021In, with the rise of short videos, the time spent by netizens in China doubled, from70Minutes are up.2More than an hour. Tencent departmentAPPTotal user usage time, the proportion of the whole network from2017Annual54.3%drop to2021Year-end35.7%. During this period, Tencent was in the passive defense stage, struggling to cope with it, but there were not many ways. It was not until the WeChat video number was born that the situation changed. According to third-party organizationsQuest MobileRelease "2022Cmnet Semi-annual Report shows that2022yearsixIn June, the monthly activity scale of WeChat video number broke through.eightBillion, has surpassed Tik Tok, ranking first, and the second place is Tik Tok.6.8Billion, Aauto Quicker is3.9Billion. In the words of Ma Huateng, it is“The video number has stood! Of course, the short board of the video number is also obvious.2021The per capita usage time of annual video number is only35Minutes, near Aauto Quicker, Tik Tok.120Minutes are used for a long time. What is reflected behind is the lack of high-quality content of video number and Tencent’s weak operational ability. Ma Huateng said at the staff meeting that he should focus on the core business and actively reduce the surrounding non-core business. The video number is the so-called core business. So, predictably,2023In 2008, Tencent will no longer be a passive defensive posture in the field of short video, but will enter a strategic offensive stage from defensive to offensive.
so2023The annual video number should give priority to buying high-quality content, including but not limited to buying the copyrights of some large-scale events and signing a group of top stars and content creators.2023Hangzhou Asian Games and2023The Women’s World Cup held in New Zealand in 2008 was a good choice, especially in this Asian Games, e-sports including the glory of the king and Peace Elite were listed as official events for the first time, and Tencent can be used as a tipping point to operate well.
In addition, a shortcoming of the video number is that the platform content creators are mostly artists below the waist, lacking top-level head leaders.2022In fact, the selection of the East in 2008 was a good opportunity for cooperation, but at that time, the e-commerce trading section of the video number just started soon and finally missed it.
In terms of video number revenue, Tencent executives previously said in a conference call that the demand for video number information flow advertising is strong, and related revenue (mainly advertising) is moving towards every quarter.10100 million yuan, and this growth has not eroded the advertising revenue of other businesses in Tencent’s ecology. So,2023Video number advertising in 2008 will contribute more revenue and help the advertising business pick up.
For the video number business, the market is now most concerned about the advertising business, but the expectation of e-commerce business is low, and Tencent officials obviously pay more attention to e-commerce business than market expectations. Ma Huateng recently expressed the hope that the video number will be closer to the transaction in the future and make the e-commerce closed loop. The video number announced that it will be on2023yearonemoononeFrom the day, it will be charged to merchants.1%-5%Technical service fee. As an industry comparison, Aauto Quicker was previously2019Since 2000, technical service fees have been charged to merchants, and Tik Tok has been2020year2moononeCollect from the merchant from the date of.1%-10%Technical service fee. The video number is currently charging technical service fees, which means that the e-commerce business is about to start on a large scale.
Tencent cloud business is expected to turn losses into profits.
Cloud computing business was once highly anticipated by the outside world and regarded as a new growth engine of Tencent in the next decade. However, in the last two years, the development of Tencent Cloud has experienced a rapid decline, and its market share has also been surpassed by Huawei, ranking third.
In fact, in the last two years, the growth rate of almost the entire local Internet cloud vendors has continued to slow down. In sharp contrast, the cloud service business of the three major domestic operators has been strong in recent years, especially in the government and enterprise market. From the information revealed by the latest Tencent internal meeting, we can clearly feel that Ma Huateng is still very optimistic about the future development prospects of cloud computing business, and has high hopes. Therefore, it is more important to encourage employees to keep a correct attitude, not be trapped by public opinion, give full play to their unique product advantages, and make excellent differentiated products.
come into contact with2022Tencent and China Unicom set up a joint venture company for cloud computing in 2006, and Ma Huateng’s statement that he is willing to be integrated, it is not difficult to see that Tencent Cloud’s computing business strategy has undergone an obvious change: gradually withdraw fromIaaSThe direct competition between the management and friends relies more on the advantages of China Unicom’s state-owned enterprises to jointly carry out business. Make full use of your own product advantages to“a three jie"(Enterprise WeChat, Tencent Conference and Tencent Document) and small programs as the core, and further increasePaaS andSaaSThe continuous expansion and realization of layer products. Take the Tencent document that the author often uses as an example. At present, most of the writing has been from the local.WordTurning to Tencent documents in an all-round way is very convenient and easy to use. And in2022In the first half of 2006, Tencent Document quietly launched the ordinary member and svip scheme, which started commercial realization. The prices are monthly.nineYuanhe monthlythirtyYuan.2022yearnineMonth, yes“national assemblyAPP”Tencent conference, known as Tencent, announced the start of charging, and launched three kinds of charging standards: individual member, business version and enterprise version. Individual member monthlythirtyYuan, minimum monthly for enterprise users399Yuan.
Therefore, Tencent Cloud business is still in the process of deep adjustment.2023We should lower our expectations in 2008. Due to the adjustment of Tencent’s product structure and the improvement of service price, Tencent Cloud business expects that its revenue will continue to maintain a low growth rate, while its business losses will be greatly narrowed.2023It is expected to achieve the first profit in 2008. In the long run, with the increase of subscription income, it is expected to achieve healthier long-term profit growth.
Strategic contraction is still the main theme.
Through Ma Huateng’s speech at the staff meeting, we can clearly perceive its2023Still not optimistic in 2008, all departments are required to focus on the main business and reduce costs and increase efficiency. Except for the video number, most businesses are in a state of strategic contraction, not expansion. Considering the current market environment, it is not difficult for Tencent to make this choice. After all,CMost areas of the consumer Internet have entered the stage of stock competition, and the era of staking is gone forever. butBThe application scenarios of end-industry Internet are different, and business development is far from a day’s work. In this case of limited external open source, internal throttling has become the main task. It is expected that there is still room for downside in various operating costs and expenses. on the one hand2022In 2006, almost all business departments of Tencent carried out business streamlining and personnel optimization, and it is estimated that2023The year 2008 will show obvious optimization effect. On the other hand, thanks to the rectification of internal corruption, the purchase cost and sales expenses are expected to continue to decrease.
Generally speaking, Tencent’s performance turning point has arrived, and the weak recovery trend in the third quarter will continue in the fourth quarter.2023Under the influence of a low base, it will usher in a recovery growth in 2008, and the growth rate at the profit end will be significantly higher than that at the revenue end. estimate2022-2024The annual adjusted net profit is respectively1189Billion,1367Billion,1562100 million yuan. In terms of valuation, currently3.3Trillion HK$ market value correspondence2023Annual dynamicsPEfor21Times, the increase in the past is more from a serious underestimation to a reasonable underestimation.2023What I earned in 2008 was more money for the recovery of performance.
(Disclaimer: This article only represents the author’s personal views; Author’s statement: I hold the stocks mentioned in the article)
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