No matter comparing the sales data or analyzing the driving effect on the industrial chain, "new energy vehicles" will undoubtedly become the key word of China automobile market in 2021.
One of the most obvious evidences is that with the production and sales of new energy vehicles hitting record highs, the layout of supporting facilities such as charging piles and power stations has been accelerated. According to the public data of China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA), as of November, 2021, Star Charging has put 246,000 charging piles into operation, 235,000 special calls and 196,000 State Grid operations. The charging networks led by car companies such as NIO Power, Tesla and Cameras also increased the speed and intensity of charging facilities in 2021. As of December 24, 2021, Tesla had accumulated 1000+ overcharged stations and 8000+ overcharged piles; In November 2021, Xpeng Motors launched 111 overcharged stations, and the cumulative number of overcharged stations reached 661.
It is worth noting that since the power exchange station was written into the government work report for the first time during the two sessions of the National People’s Congress in 2020, promoting the pilot of the new energy vehicle power exchange model has also become an important part of releasing the consumption potential in key areas.
As a representative of automobile enterprises pushing for the mode of changing power stations and separating vehicles from electricity, Weilai Automobile had more than 20,000 daily orders for changing electricity and accumulated more than 5.9 million services for changing electricity.
The reporter learned that as of December 31, 2021, Weilai has laid out 777 power stations across the country, including 205 expressway power stations; In addition, there are 605 overcharge stations and 626 destination charging stations, and more than 450,000 third-party charging piles are connected.
An obvious truth is that as the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, only by giving new energy vehicles a better use environment will more consumers be willing to choose new energy vehicles. Therefore, how to solve the problems of "charging difficulty" and "mileage anxiety" of new energy vehicles by using the power exchange mode, and whether the power exchange mode can stand on the cusp of "new infrastructure" and "peak carbon dioxide emissions, carbon neutrality" have become the necessary questions for the new energy vehicle market in China in 2022.
Why can the power exchange mode stand on the "window"
According to the data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. In addition, the market share of new energy vehicles has increased to 13.4%, further indicating that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven.
Undoubtedly, the rapidly growing sales of new energy vehicles put forward higher requirements for the charging and replacing service network. Especially in holidays such as National Day, the pressure of people’s concentrated travel magnifies the trouble of "difficult charging".
"Compared with the traditional charging mode, the power exchange station is more efficient and faster. If the layout of the power station is reasonable, it only takes about 5 minutes to change the battery, which is much faster than charging. " Yang Xiaolin, a senior auto media person, said that the charging and replacing service is also an important part of the experience of new energy vehicles, and those auto brands that provide users with fast charging and replacing services have a better chance of winning the favor of consumers. "Many charging piles that have been used for a long time have experienced old facilities, lack of safety management and occupation. Therefore, as a new species, the power exchange station should do a good job in facility maintenance and power exchange services."
In addition, because the power exchange speed is fast, the power exchange station can improve the service efficiency. "According to our calculation, a power exchange station covers an area of only 4 parking spaces and can provide up to 312 power exchange services every day, which is higher than the land utilization rate of installing charging piles in parking spaces." In a Weilai power exchange station near the North Fifth Ring Road in Beijing, the staff told reporters that the power exchange mode can use urban peaks and valleys to supply power to implement phased charging, and the power distribution advantage is obvious, which can improve energy utilization efficiency.
"From a technical point of view, there is no obvious bottleneck in the promotion of the power exchange model. In the final analysis, it is necessary to consider whether it is economically cost-effective." Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that only by calculating the "economic account" of the power station can it be promoted on a larger scale.
In fact, the promotion of changing power stations is inseparable from exploring a new business model of "separation of vehicles and electricity".
"To do a good job of energy supply for new energy vehicles, we can meet different travel needs through the combination of charging and replacing." A person in charge of a new energy investment company who has long been concerned about the power exchange mode said that realizing the "separation of vehicles and electricity" can not only make consumers gain more benefits, but also allow car companies to get rid of their burdens and move forward lightly.
Take the BaaS model of Weilai as an example. Through the separation model of vehicle and electricity, the battery is owned and managed by the asset company and rented to consumers, and the buyer only needs to pay the purchase fee of the vehicle without battery and the battery rent. This allows consumers to reduce the purchase threshold by tens of thousands of yuan at a time, and at the same time, they do not have to bear the loss of battery depreciation, and upgrade the battery at a lower cost. According to reports, as of November 30, 2021, Weilai has provided 8047 users with battery upgrade services (including permanent and flexible annual upgrades); On December 5, 2021, Weilai announced that the battery would be fully opened by monthly flexible upgrade.
"As a consumable chemical, the battery should not be completely bound with the performance and service life of a car, which is unscientific. For example, the domestic battery technology is constantly upgrading and iterating, and the energy density of the battery may be greatly improved in a short time. If the battery is bound when buying a car, those customers who buy it first will definitely complain. " For example, he told reporters that the ideal state of new energy vehicles is that customers can choose to rent batteries of different specifications according to their different travel needs. "This will be as convenient as refueling."
The power exchange mode may become a "trump card" for China new energy car companies
It is worth noting that in addition to automobile companies such as Weilai Automobile and Beiqi New Energy, more and more traditional energy giants are participating in the promotion of power exchange mode.
Shell Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Weilai at the end of November after Sinopec and PetroChina began to lay out the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities throughout the country. In the China market, the two sides plan to build 100 power exchange stations by 2025. In Europe, the two sides plan to start the construction and operation of the power exchange station from 2022. In terms of charging facilities, Shell’s European charging network will be open to Weilai users.
"Carbon neutrality is a common global challenge, which requires a wide range of global solutions. I am very excited about the cooperation between Shell and Weilai in Europe and China, the breadth of cooperation between the two sides and the value that can be created for consumers together. " Ke Yifan, executive vice president of global retail business of Shell Group, admits that Shell is the world’s largest oil retailer, but it is also committed to becoming one of the world’s leading charging service providers.
According to Pan Helin’s analysis, under the background of accelerating the global decarbonization process and China’s commitment to carbon neutrality, traditional energy companies such as Sinopec and Shell must also consider "don’t put their eggs in the same basket" and speed up cutting into new energy tracks.
"By cooperating with new forces such as Weilai Automobile, traditional energy companies hope to maintain their market position in the field of new energy." He said that on the one hand, traditional energy companies use their own network resources to change power stations, which conforms to the trend of developing new energy vehicles; On the other hand, the admission of the "national team" of the petroleum system also shows China’s determination to reduce carbon emissions.
"The cooperation between Weilai and Shell is not limited to the China market, which means that the power exchange model may become a part of the development of new energy vehicles in China, which will increase the advantages for China car companies to explore overseas markets." Yang Xiaolin believes that in order to maintain long-term competitiveness, many electric vehicle companies choose to build their own energy supply networks, and Weilai and Tucki are among them.
In his view, although the consumption habits and usage scenarios are different, the development of new energy vehicles has its objective laws. "No matter the charging mode or the power exchange mode, the infrastructure that meets the needs of users is the prerequisite for the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles." Some analysts believe that NIO Power is expected to become one of the "golden signs" for Weilai brand to attract users, thanks to the technical route of separating vehicles from electricity, a comprehensive charging and replacing system and a well-known service level.
It is worth noting that before entering the Norwegian market, Weilai deliberately announced that it would build 20 second-generation power stations in Norway, covering the top five cities and major highways in Norway, "bringing full-scene charging and replacing services to the Norwegian market". In China, Weilai plans to build a high-speed power exchange network with "five vertical, three horizontal and four metropolitan areas" before the Spring Festival in 2022. By 2022, Weilai plans to build more than 1,300 power stations, more than 6,000 super-charged piles and more than 10,000 destination charging piles in China.
Some analysts believe that the strong infrastructure capacity, denser population distribution, early pilot projects in the field of public travel and other policy dividends make it possible for the large-scale commercialization of power exchange mode in China. Once the construction and operation costs can be controlled within a reasonable range, there will be more room for imagination for the faster and more efficient power exchange mode. (China Youth Daily Xu Yajie)